USDJPY Analysis: Preparing for September Policies
USDJPY Outlook: With Tokyo’s Core CPI reaching 2024 highs and key economic data from the US on the horizon, the USDJPY chart is positioned for either intensified bearish pressures or a potential hold above the critical 140 barrier.
Share this:
Key Events Today:
- Tokyo Core CPI Rises to 2.4%: Marking the fourth consecutive increase
- European Flash CPI Estimate: Matches the expected inflation drop to 2.2%
- US Core PCE: Waited for insights into the upcoming September monetary policies
Next Week:
- US Bank Holiday (Monday): Irregular volatility is expected
- US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Tuesday): A leading economic indicator
- US JOLTS Job Openings (Wednesday): A key indicator of overall employment
- ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (Thursday): Provides an early look at employment trends
- ISM Services PMI (Thursday): A leading indicator, challenging current inflation rate trends
- US Non-Farm Payrolls (Friday): A critical indicator of economic activity
- FOMC Member Williams' Statement (Friday)
The long-anticipated Fed rate cut for 2024 is near, with upcoming employment indicators set to play a crucial role in determining its magnitude, alongside today’s US Core PCE data. From the Yen’s perspective, Tokyo’s Core CPI surpassing the central bank’s target could set a hawkish tone for the BOJ at its September policy meeting. With both Dovish US and Hawkish Japanese policies in focus, the USDJPY may face increased bearish pressures.
Next week’s US data is expected to bring high volatility to the US Dollar, with leading economic indicators and non-farm payrolls data culminating in key remarks from Fed member Williams.
Technical Outlook
USDJPY Analysis: USDJPY – Weekly Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: Tradingview
On a weekly time frame, the chart continues to respect the support established by the Dragonfly Doji pattern, which aligns with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) retesting levels from January 2023. The key support levels remain near the extremes of the pattern, between 141.70 and 140, before potentially targeting the July 2023 low at the 137 zone.
On the upside, the trendline connecting consecutive higher lows from January, March, and December 2023 serves as the resistance and a critical barrier between the chart’s downtrend and any potential continuation of an uptrend.
A bullish trend could emerge if the price closes above the 150-barrier, with expected levels at 152 and 154. Given the trajectory of upcoming monetary policies from the Fed and BOJ, bearish dominance currently appears on the chart. However, this could shift if upcoming data supports a bullish reversal, confirming the presence of the Dragonfly Doji pattern.
--- Written by Razan Hilal, CMT – on X: @Rh_waves
Related tags:
Latest market news
Open an account in minutes
Experience award-winning platforms with fast and secure execution, and enjoy tight spreads from 0.5 pts on FX and 0.3 pts on indices.
Economic calendar
Web Trader platform
Our sophisticated web-based platform is packed with features.
Related articles
EUR/USD Q4 2026 Outlook: Euro at a Crossroads as Fed, ECB Tighten 9 25 2026
EUR/USD enters Q4 at a pivotal inflection point as competing Fed-ECB policy paths and persistent inflation risks collide with major technical support.
USD/JPY Q4 2026 Outlook: Hawkish Fed Pricing Clashes With Intervention Risk
The year-end tug-of-war is clear: hawkish Fed pricing supports USD/JPY, while intervention risk limits the upside.
USD/CAD and USD/MXN Q4 2026 Outlook: Will the U.S. Dollar Dominate North America Again?
The final stretch of 2026 is approaching, and North America's major currencies have begun to show a shift in the strength dynamics seen earlier in the year. New expectations of a more aggressive monetary policy stance, particularly in the United States, could be significantly reshaping the outlook for the region. At the same time, this backdrop, combined with potential trade tensions across North America, may become one of the most important drivers of currency performance in the months ahead.
This report is intended for general circulation only. It should not be construed as a recommendation, or an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any financial products. The information provided does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Before you act on any recommendation that may be contained in this report, independent advice ought to be sought from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd., may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities or affiliates within the StoneX group of companies or third parties pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed to a person in Singapore who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or an institutional investor (as defined in the Securities Futures Act), StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. accepts legal responsibility to such persons for the contents of the report only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. at 6826 9988 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.
In the case of all other recipients of this report, to the extent permitted by applicable laws and regulations neither StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. nor its associated companies will be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information contained in this report and all such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the content of this report is complete or accurate.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. is not under any obligation to update this report.
Trading CFDs carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for some investors. Consider your investment objectives, level of experience, financial resources, risk appetite and other relevant circumstances carefully. The possibility exists that you could lose some or all of your investments, including your initial deposits. If in doubt, please seek independent expert advice. Visit www.forex.com/en-sg/terms-and-policies for the complete Risk Disclosure Statement.