British Pound Forecast: GBP/USD Poised for September Breakout

British Pound Technical Forecast: GBP/USD Weekly Trade Levels

British Pound erases weekly losses on weak NFPs– rallies more than 1.4% off the weekly low
GBP/USD September opening-range breakout to offer guidance- Key U.S. inflation data on tap
Resistance 1.3648/50 (key), 1.3749, 1.4003- Support 1.3280-1.3315 (key), 1.3092-1.3144, 1.2948

Sterling snapped a two-week losing streak on Friday with a weak US labor report fueling a recovery off technical support and erasing the early week-losses. The rebound keeps the focus on a breakout of the monthly opening-range which is taking shape just below technical resistance. Looking for the breakout in the days ahead and the battle lines drawn on the Sterling weekly technical chart heading into key inflation data next week.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Sterling setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

British Pound Price Chart – GBP/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; GBP/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s British Pound Weekly Forecast we noted that, “a six-day sell-off rebounded off support on Friday with an outside-day reversal. From a trading standpoint, the immediate focus is on this recovery…” GBP/USD rallied nearly 3.5% in the following weeks with price exhausting into the 75% parallel of the ascending pitchfork extending off the 2023 low. A pullback of more than 1.9% off those highs reversed course this week with the post-NFP rally snapping a two-losing streak on Friday.

Weekly resistance remains along the 75% parallel and is backed by the 2025 high-week close (HWC) / 78.6% retracement of the June decline at 1.3648/50- look for a larger reaction there IF reached with a breach / weekly close above the 2022 high at 1.3749 ultimately needed to mark resumption of the broader uptrend. Subsequent resistance objectives eyed at the upper parallel / 61.8% extension of the 2022 advance at 1.4003.

Initial weekly support rests at with the 2024 swing high at 1.3434 and is backed by 1.3280-1.3315- a region defined by the July low-week reversal close and the 61.8% retracement of the July advance. Note that the median-line converges on this threshold in the coming weeks and a break / close below this slope would suggest a more significant high is in place / a larger reversal is underway. Subsequent support objectives seen at 1.3092-1.3144 and the 100% extension at 1.2948 in the event of a break.

Bottom line: Sterling failed a third attempt to break support this week with the September opening-range taking shape just above- look for a breakout of this week’s range in the days ahead. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to the median-line IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a breach / close above 1.3650 needed to fuel the next leg of the advance.

Keep in mind we get the release of key US inflation data next week with Core PPI & CPI on tap Wednesday and Thursday respectively. Stay nimble into the releases and watch the weekly closes for guidance here. Review my latest British Pound Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term GBP/USD technical trade levels.

GBP/USD Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

StoneX Financial Ltd (trading as "FOREX.com") is an execution-only service provider. This material, whether or not it states any opinions, is for general information purposes only and it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. This material has been prepared using the thoughts and opinions of the author and these may change. However, FOREX.com does not plan to provide further updates to any material once published and it is not under any obligation to keep this material up to date.

This material is short term in nature and may only relate to facts and circumstances existing at a specific time or day. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, legal, tax or other advice and no reliance should be placed on it. No opinion given in this material constitutes a recommendation by FOREX.com or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although FOREX.com is not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, FOREX.com does not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. This material is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. For further details see our full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. CFD and Forex Trading are leveraged products and your capital is at risk. They may not be suitable for everyone. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.

FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Financial Ltd. StoneX Financial Ltd is a company incorporated in England and Wales with UK Companies House number 05616586 and with its registered office at 1st Floor, Moor House, 120 London Wall, London, EC2Y 5ET. StoneX Financial Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK, with FCA Register Number: 446717.

FOREX.com is a trademark of StoneX Financial Ltd . This website uses cookies to provide you with the very best experience and to know you better. By visiting our website with your browser set to allow cookies, you consent to our use of cookies as described in our Privacy Policy. FOREX.com products and services are not intended for Belgium residents.