Two trades to watch: EUR/GBP, Nasdaq

EUR/GBP awaits Rishi Sunak’s announcement. Nasdaq looks to US GDP and jobless claims data.

Charts (6)

EUR/GBP awaits Rishi Sunak’s announcement

EUR/GBP is rising after steep losses in the previous session, despite encouraging German GDP and consumer confidence data.

Today the pair is edging higher as attention is on UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak, who is expected to announce a cost-of-living crisis bailout package to the tune of £10 billion.

This could include money off surging energy bills, help towards council taxes, and even a windfall tax on energy and oil companies’ surging profits.

Any fiscal support from the government will need to be very targeted, or else it could add to inflationary pressures.

The eurozone economic calendar is relatively quiet, with just Italian consumer confidence data due.

Where next for EURGBP?

EURGBP continues to hold above its multi-month falling trendline, above its 50 & 100 sma, and above its rising trendline dating back to April 18. The RSI is also above 30, indicating that there could be more upside to come.

Buyers will look for a move over 0.8510, the March high, to extend the run higher to 0.8590, the May 24 high, and 0.8620, the 2022 high.

On the flip side, support can be seen at 0.8475, the falling trendline support, 0.8450, the rising trendline support, and 0.8410, the 50 sma.

eurgbp chart

Nasdaq looks to US GDP, and jobless claims data.

The US tech-heavy index rose sharply yesterday after the Fed minutes brought no new surprises and were perhaps considered less hawkish than feared.

The minutes showed that most policymakers supported a 50 basis point rate hike in the June and July meetings. At the May 3-4 meeting, the Fed also considered the US economy to be in a solid position to deal with the hikes required, boosting risk sentiment.

Attention now turns to US GDP data which is expected to show a slight upward revision to -1.3% in Q1.

US jobless claims will also be under the spotlight after rising to a ten-week high last week. More weakness in the labour market could raise concerns of a slowdown hitting the jobs market.

Where next for the Nasdaq?

The Nasdaq has been trading in a falling channel since early April. The price found support at 11490, the 2022 low last week, and is consolidating around this lower level, capped on the upside by 12060. The RSI remains below 30, supporting further downside while it remains out of oversold territory.

Sellers will need to take out support at 11680 the May 12 low to open the door to 11490. A break below here is needed to continue the bearish trend.

On the flip side, buyers will look for a move over 12060 to expose the 20 sma. A move above here would be significant because the price has traded below the 20 sma since early April

nasdaq chart


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