AUD/USD, US dollar, Swiss franc analysis: COT report – Feb 26, 2024
Traders remained net-long US dollar index futures last week, although asset managers have the more convincing bullish view for the dollar.
AUD/USD outlook: RBNZ, US and AU CPI to drive the Australian dollar
It could be an interesting week for the Australian dollar if caught between the crossfire of the RBNZ meeting, Fed talk and US inflation data. We also have an Australian inflation report to throw into the mix for good measure.
US dollar weakness might be short lived: The Week Ahead
The US dollar shows the potential to retrace some of the week's losses in light of hawkish Fed comments. Although attention now shifts to the US PCE inflation report, Australian CPI and RBNZ interest rate decision and press conference.
AUD/USD falters at the 200-day MA, ASX 200 eyes record high
AUD/USD rose for a seventh day yet left a prominent reversal candle at the 200-day EMA. Positive sentiment for the stock market could see the ASX 200 retest or even break to a new record high.
DAX futures, Nikkei 225 hit record highs: European open
It was a lively session for equity traders in Asia on Thursday, with the Nikkei 225 and DAX futures hitting record highs. The Nikkei made its inevitable run to 39k and touched a record high, by a cat's whisker.
AUD/JPY nears 17-month high, ASX 200 looks set to bounce: Asian Open
AUD/JPY has fast approached a pivotal level to hint that an eventual breakout could be on the cards, even if not immediately. The ASX 200 looks sets to bounce after positive earning from Nvidia lifted Wall Street futures after market hours.
If USD/CNH is the canary in the coalmine, USD/JPY might be in trouble
A bearish reversal pattern has formed on USD/CNH which implies a move down to 7.10. And if the yuan continues to strengthen, it could see the yen follow and scupper USD/JPY attempt at breaking 152.
USD/JPY forecast: 151 seems plausible, 152 may be a stretch
USD/JPY is clinging to 150 despite the weaker US dollar on Tuesday, as there seems little reason for traders to bid the yen. And unless we receive a compelling reason to buy then yen via a surprisingly hawkish BOJ or broad risk-off environment, it becomes difficult to construct an overly bearish case for USD/JPY whilst the Fed remain quiet about rate cuts.
Gold rises on renewed Fed-cut bets, crude oil falters at resistance
Soft inflation figures from Canada and a poll of economists backing a June Fed cut sent gold higher on Wednesday, as traders refreshed their dovish bets. Crude oil has also faltered once more at a key resistance area.
USD forecast: Positioning hints at headwinds for USD, 2-year yield
Short bets against the US 2-year yield continue to diminish yet remain at a sentiment extreme. And as the yield flatlined above 5% in 2023 despite aggressive short positioning, it suggests its yield may struggle to retake 5% this time around. And that could prove to be a headwind for the USD.
NZD, AUD take the lead in quiet trade but USD may not be done yet
NZD/USD and AUD/USD were the strongest pairs on Monday during quiet trade, but the USD shows the potential to bounce before a larger move lower, which could eventually allow AUD/USD to reach for 66c.