Economic Calendar

Tuesday, December 5

03:30 GMT

The Reserve Bank of Australia had paused interest rate hikes for several months until raising the Cash Rate by an additional 25 basis points to 4.35% in November. Whether that was the last hike in the current cycle remains to be seen. But the fact that Australia’s inflation rate eased sharply to an annual rate of 4.9% in October from 5.6% the previous month, this has further reduced likelihood of another rate rise from the RBA. Still, the RBA is likely to hold rates high for a long period of time until inflation falls to the 2-3% target range.

What to watch: AUD, Australia 200

Wednesday, December 6

15:00 GMT

Slower inflation, uncertain growth, and lower oil prices all suggest the Bank of Canada will likely maintain current interest rates for the fourth consecutive time, overlooking job market tightness. While the central bank will probably maintain a higher-for-longer narrative alive, doubts may arise in markets nonetheless, as we have seen in the case of the US Federal Reserve. Regardless of the RBA’s language, the USD/CAD will probably remain more sensitive to the volatility in US dollar, as we have seen with other major FX pairs.

What to watch: USD/CAD, CAD/JPY

Friday, December 8

13:30 GMT

In the last 5 months, we have seen 3 misses in the headline jobs growth, a sharp contrast to the previous 14 occasions when we saw repeated beats. The recent weakness in jobs growth, although not alarming by any means, suggests that the jobs market is cooling. This has also been highlighted in other measures of the labour market, with jobless claims rising more than expected and the unemployment rate edging higher. If we get a rather weak number this time, then expectations over a sooner-than-expected rate cut could send the dollar lower again.

What to watch: USD, gold