AUD/USD, US dollar, Swiss franc analysis: COT report – Feb 26, 2024
Traders remained net-long US dollar index futures last week, although asset managers have the more convincing bullish view for the dollar.
AUD/USD outlook: RBNZ, US and AU CPI to drive the Australian dollar
It could be an interesting week for the Australian dollar if caught between the crossfire of the RBNZ meeting, Fed talk and US inflation data. We also have an Australian inflation report to throw into the mix for good measure.
AUD/USD falters at the 200-day MA, ASX 200 eyes record high
AUD/USD rose for a seventh day yet left a prominent reversal candle at the 200-day EMA. Positive sentiment for the stock market could see the ASX 200 retest or even break to a new record high.
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NZD, AUD take the lead in quiet trade but USD may not be done yet
NZD/USD and AUD/USD were the strongest pairs on Monday during quiet trade, but the USD shows the potential to bounce before a larger move lower, which could eventually allow AUD/USD to reach for 66c.
AUD/USD weekly outlook: RBA, FOMC minutes, wages and PMIs on tap
AUD/USD could be susceptible to movement from minutes of the recent FOMC and RBA meetings. But with Australian unemployment data hitting a three-year high, a softer set of wage figures could bring forward bets of a rate cut.
China market performance post Lunar New Year key for AUD/USD outlook
With the US dollar unable to find traction despite shorter-dated US yields rising to the highest level since mid-December, there are grounds to suggest AUD/USD may be able to break stubborn resistance located above .6530 in the days ahead.
AUD/USD, ASX 200 rapid rebound gathers pace despite warning from rates markets
Despite lacklustre corporate earnings and rebound in US bond yields, the spectacular rally in AUD/USD and Australia’s ASX 200 only gathered pace in the second half of Thursday’s trading session, leaving both markets eyeing off potential topside breaks.
AUD/USD, ASX 200: Employment slowdown a seasonal swoon or start of something sinister?
Australia’s labour market is undeniably slowing, bringing the prospect of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) leapfrogging the US Federal Reserve when it comes to which central bank will cut interest rates first.
AUD/USD, ASX 200 forward testing: Australian employment report
I’m particularly keen to see if the significant loss of full-time jobs is seen for a second consecutive month in tomorrow's Australian employment report. So today we look at how the ASX 200 and AUD/USD have performed around this key economic data release.
USD/JPY breaks 150 as bulls eye 152, AUD/USD seems on track for 64c
US inflation data was broadly higher than expected, which triggered well defined moves in favour of the US dollar and to the detriment of all else. Whilst USD/JPY and AUD/USD could retrace from their overextended moves seen on Tuesday, 152 and 64c seem like viable targets for them respectively.
AUD/USD bulls battling against stubborn sellers into US CPI
AUD/USD hasn’t had much luck dealing with sellers layered above .6530 recently. 13 attempts on the four-hourly chart in less than a week to no avail, leaving it sandwiched in a tight range between minor uptrend support.
EUR/USD falters at 1.08 on CPI-eve, USD/JPY remains buoyant: Asian Open
EUR/USD snapped a 4-day winning Streak around a key resistance zone, and USD/JPY traded less than 50-pips from 150 ahead of a key YS CPI report.
AUD/USD weekly outlook: US inflation, AU jobs figures to drive AUD
AUD/USD traders will keep a close eye on US inflation data to decipher Fed policy, Australia's employment report to see if another month of strong job losses ensues.
AUD/USD firms post RBA, ASX 200 eyes on China for sentiment
The RBA held their cash rate at 4.35% for a third meeting but decided not to remove their slight tightening bias from the statement, warning that “a further increase in interest rates cannot be ruled out”.
AUD/USD, ASX 200 rebound on China market surge, not RBA
The RBA continues to see the risk that rates may increase again despite delivering updated forecasts showing faster progress in bringing inflation back to within its target band. For AUD/USD traders, there was more interest in the rally in Chinese stocks and currency than what the bank had to say.
AUD/USD upside hamstrung by Australia’s stretched consumer
Bargain hunting by cost conscious consumers saw Australian retail sales volumes accelerate slightly in the final three months of 2023, reducing the risk of a negative growth when the December quarter national accounts are released in early March.
USD extends its lead on hot ISM report, RBA up next for AUD, ASX traders
An inflationary ISM report saw bets of multiple Fed cuts reduced to send the US dollar index to an 11-week high. If the RBA come out with a dovish meeting today, AUD/USD could be headed for 64c.
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USD/JPY bulls eye 152, AUD/USD bears eye 64c: Asian Open
A surprisingly strong NFP report on Friday saw the US dollar rally against all FX major, which brings 152 in focus for USD/JPY bulls and 64c for AUD/USD bears.
AUD/USD weekly outlook: Powell, RBA rate decision in focus
Monday could be off to a volatile start if Jerome Powell’s 60-minutes interview causes a stir for global markets. Whilst the RBA meeting, press conference and updated forecasts could drive sentiment for AUD and the ASX next week
AUD/USD rebound provides opportunity for bears to reset shorts
A rebound in US equities sparked by renewed earnings optimism and continued declines in US bond yields acted to snuff out a potential downside break in AUD/USD, sending the pair sharply higher over the course of North American trade.
AUD monthly outlook: February 2024
AUD/USD suffered its worst month in 11 in January, after traders scaled back bets of several Fed cuts this year which helped the US dollar rally and force AUD/USD -3.5% lower for the month. The focus now shifts to next week's RBA meeting.
AUD/USD trading soggy as markets ramp up June RBA rate cut bets
Australian overnight index swaps (OIS) markets are fully priced for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut its overnight cash rate by 25 basis points in June to 4.1%, adding pressure on AUD/USD following the release of a softer-than-expected Australian consumer price inflation (CPI) report on Wednesday.
US dollar rallies, S&P 500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq tumble post FOMC
The Fed held rates and ruled out a March cut, which saw the S&P 500 suffer its worst day since September, the Nasdaq 100 falling around -1.8% and the Dow Jones form a bearish outside day at its record high. USD/JPY still looks good for a run to 150 to my technical eyes.