Crypto Technical Analysis: Crypto momentum loses strength again

As we approach mid-July, generalized weakness is once again becoming evident across the main cryptocurrency market. Now, most of the market has failed to close the week in positive territory, with only ETH managing to remain relatively stable.

This behavior reflects that the demand strength observed in previous weeks has started to weaken significantly. For now, a short-term bias of indecision and weakness dominates the market, limiting the formation of clear trends. If the main cryptocurrencies fail to reach relevant highs again, this phase of indecision could remain important over the next few trading sessions.

Performance of the main cryptocurrencies

Source: Data - StoneX, Tradingview

• During the week, generalized weakness once again stood out across the cryptocurrency market. Solana, which had been one of the most stable cryptocurrencies in previous weeks, is now showing a short-term decline of -4.44%. In contrast, ETH has been the only cryptocurrency able to maintain some relative stability, with a weekly gain of 1.7%. Overall, most of the market is not showing enough strength, and a short-term weakness bias is becoming consolidated again, reducing the possibility of seeing relevant new bullish trends.
   

• Over the last 10 weeks on average, weakness remains important across the main cryptocurrencies. All of them continue to show relevant declines, which suggests that medium-term selling pressure has not fully disappeared and remains the dominant bias. In this regard, Solana stands out with a decline of -19.36%, positioning itself as one of the most stable cryptocurrencies compared to previous weeks, although it still reflects a significant price decline. In contrast, Cardano remains one of the most affected, with a decline of -40.36%, showing that its accumulated weakness is still considerable.
   

• Year to date, the dynamic remains fairly similar. None of the main cryptocurrencies has managed to move above its 2026 opening price, and the recent recovery still does not appear strong enough to drastically change the annual trend. Cardano remains the weakest asset over this period, with a decline of -51.46%. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has tried to maintain greater relative stability, with a decline of -27.97%, although it still has not managed to deliver a positive performance for the year.
   

• Bitcoin, which had tried to maintain strength in previous weeks, is now showing weakness again. During the week, the market’s benchmark asset lost a little more than 650 dollars and failed to maintain consistent movements above the 65k area. This continues to highlight important weakness in the market’s most relevant cryptocurrency, which for now has not managed to act as a driver for the rest of the assets.
   

• Overall, the market has failed to maintain last week’s confidence and continues to show weakness and indecision. In addition, Bitcoin has not managed to pull the rest of the market higher, maintaining a sense of broad pressure that could continue to affect the recovery seen in previous weeks over the next few trading sessions.

Colors from red to green – Red for negative correlations and green for positive correlations

Source: Data - StoneX, Tradingview

From a correlation standpoint, a decline in the coefficient of some cryptocurrencies relative to Bitcoin continues to be observed. Although a significant positive correlation above 0.7 still exists in assets such as Litecoin, ETH, and XRP, in the case of ADA, Solana, and Dogecoin, the coefficients are already below this area and, in some cases, are approaching 0.3.

This shows that, although positive correlation remains present in some parts of the market, it no longer appears to be as strong as in previous months relative to Bitcoin’s behavior. It is important to remember that the correlation coefficient can change over time.

This behavior indicates that the crypto market, in general, has started to detach from Bitcoin’s dynamic. In addition, the benchmark cryptocurrency has failed to stabilize a strength bias capable of supporting the broader market, which could be reducing appetite for less relevant cryptocurrencies.

In this scenario, the general dynamic remains marked by weakness and indecision across the main cryptocurrencies. So far, not even the largest assets have managed to stand out with relevant strength, meaning this phase could remain important over the next few sessions, especially if confidence fails to recover in benchmark cryptocurrencies such as BTC.

 

Bitcoin fails to consolidate direction

Source: StoneX, Tradingview

Bitcoin has failed to stand out with strong movements during the week. For now, the recovery observed in the first sessions has not been enough to put at risk the long bearish trend line that remains relevant on the daily chart. Beyond this, the average movements of recent weeks have started to show a dynamic close to a short-term sideways range. This could continue to reflect an important indecision bias for Bitcoin over the next few sessions.

Indicators:

• Now, both the RSI and the MACD histogram remain very close to their neutral levels of 50 and 0, respectively. This highlights a balance between buying and selling impulses, as well as neutral average strength in short-term moving averages. This dynamic shows that the current phase of neutrality or indecision in BTC could remain relevant amid the lack of clear direction on the chart.

Key levels:

• 70,600 USD – Important resistance: This recent high zone is positioned as the most relevant bullish barrier and coincides with the base marked by the long bearish trend line. Moves toward this level could reactivate the buying bias and start to put the bearish structure at risk over the coming weeks.
   
• 65,500 USD – Near-term barrier: This neutral chart level aligns with the area near the 50-period simple moving average. Price movements too close to this level could continue to highlight a phase of indecision and even give more relevance to a possible short-term sideways range over the next few sessions.
   
• 59,300 USD – Definitive support: This area represents the October 2024 low and is close to important psychological levels. For now, it remains the most relevant bearish barrier. Consistent moves below this point could reactivate the selling bias from previous weeks and extend the major bearish trend line on the daily chart as the dominant structure over the coming trading weeks.

 

Ripple approaches yearly lows

Source: StoneX, Tradingview

Ripple has been one of the most affected cryptocurrencies of the trading week. Recent weakness in price movements has taken the asset close to 2026 low zone, without managing to break meaningfully above the long bearish trend line that remains in place on the chart. For this reason, if selling pressure stabilizes more clearly, this trend line could continue to act as the dominant pattern over the next few trading sessions.

Indicators:

• At the moment, both the RSI and the MACD histogram remain close to their neutral zones. This suggests that there is still balance in market impulses and in the average strength of short-term moving averages. For now, this reading indicates that a phase of indecision could also remain relevant for Ripple movements over the next few sessions.

Key levels:

• 129.34 – Important resistance: This relevant high level coincides with the highs from previous weeks and remains an area located above the long bearish trend line. Price movements toward this level could put that structure at risk and open room for a more dominant buying bias over the coming weeks.
   
• 113.29 – Near-term barrier: This relevant level coincides with the bearish trend line and the 50-period moving average. Price movements too close to this level could highlight a more important phase of indecision and open room for the formation of a sideways range over the next few sessions.
   
• 100.29 – Main support: This level corresponds to the relevant 2026 lows and is considered the most important bearish barrier. Moves toward this area could call the recent recovery into question and reactivate a relevant selling bias, with room to extend the long bearish trend line over the coming weeks.

 

Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst

Follow him on: @julianpineda25