Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA extends gains as Fed rate cut expectations build

US futures                                         

Dow futures 0.60%, S&P futures 0.55%  & Nasdaq futures 0.67%

In Europe                                                                        

FTSE 0.82% & DAX 0.81%

• Stocks rise as the market prices in an 83% chance of a rate cut
• Jobless claims ease to 216k, and durable goods orders slip to 0.5%
• Dell Technologies rises after results, tech stocks rise
• Oil falls as Russia-Ukraine peace deal progresses

Rate cut expectations rise to 83%

US stocks are extending gains on Wednesday, rising for a fourth straight session, as investors digest fresh economic data and double down on expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in the December meeting.

You asked about the list claims, which fell to 216,000 in the week ending November 22nd, below expectations of 225,000. Meanwhile, delayed data show that US durable goods orders rose 0.5% in September, down from 3% in August.

This data comes after weaker-than-expected retail sales and deteriorating consumer confidence.

While the US economy is clearly not slipping into recession, it could be considered weak enough to warrant another 25 basis point rate reduction in December. According to the CME Fed watch tool, the market is pricing in an 83% probability that the Fed will cut interest rates again next month.

Traders are also bracing for the Thanksgiving holiday tomorrow, followed by Black Friday and Cyber Monday, a period when trading volumes are typically thin, which can encourage price swings. This period will also be key for big box retailers.

Corporate news         

Dell Technologies gained 3.4% after the tech giant issued a higher-than-expected current quarter revenue and profit outlook, supported by soaring demand for its AI servers.

Nvidia is falling 0.6%, extending yesterday's losses, amid fresh concerns about the chip maker's dominance in AI chipmaking.

Urban Outfitters has soared 17% after the clothing retailer posted a 12% jump in Q3 sales to a record $1.53 billion.

Dow Jones forecast – technical analysis.

The Dow faced rejection at the record high of 48,425 before falling sharply lower to 45,700. From here, the price has recovered to 47,150 at the time of writing. Buyers supported by the RSI will look to extend gains towards 48k and 48,425 and fresh record highs. Immediate support is around 47k. A break below here opens the door to support at 45,700, the November low. A break below this levels creates a lower low.

FX markets – USD falls, GBP/USD rises

The U.S. dollar is under pressure amid rising expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again in December, following weaker data yesterday and recent dovish commentary from Fed officials.

EUR/USD is rising amid a quiet eurozone economic calendar and amid hopes that a Russia–Ukraine peace deal is progressing. ECB President Christine Lagarde and the ECB chief economist are due to speak later.

GBP/USD has risen following the Chancellor's Budget. The OBR upgraded UK growth forecasts this year to 1.5% in 2025. The Chancellor has expanded her fiscal buffer to £22 billion, the most achieved in a Budget since 2022 and well ahead of the £15 billion expected. This was achieved by lifting taxes by £29.8 billion, taking the burden to 38% of GDP.

Oil falls as oversupply jitters return

Oil prices are under pressure, falling to $57.50 on Wednesday, near a five-week low, amid signs that the Ukraine-Russia peace agreement may be approaching, which could lead to sanctions on Russia being lifted.

President Trump said the negotiations were nearly complete with just a few remaining issues, while Ukraine's top aide in Geneva said the talks had a promising start.

Should Russia and Ukraine reach a peace agreement, sanctions on Russian oil exports could be lifted, potentially boosting supply and intensifying concerns about a supply glut next year, as production continues to outpace consumption.

US crude oil inventories fell by 1.9 million barrels last week, marking the first draw after three consecutive weekly gains. Attention now turns to EIA oil inventory data.