ASX 200 Outlook: Bears To Retain Control Despite Two-Day Rebound

Hopes of a US-Iran peace deal helped lift the ASX 200 for a second consecutive session, though SPI 200 futures turned sharply lower overnight after reports Iran rejected the proposal. With futures slipping beneath weekly VWAP and the recent rebound lacking strong open interest participation, traders may question whether the latest rally was merely corrective within a broader bearish structure.

View related analysis:

SPI 200 Futures Slide Below VWAP as GEX Resistance Caps Rebound

ASX 200 Market Snapshot

Hopes of a US-Iran peace deal helped lift the ASX 200 for a second consecutive session, delivering its strongest 2-day rally in four weeks alongside the widest daily trading ranges
Financials (XFJ) and materials (XMH) have been the key drivers behind the rebound, although momentum in financial stocks faded into Wednesday’s close
The ASX 200 is now tracking towards a bullish engulfing week and has retraced roughly half of April’s sharp selloff
However, with resistance levels nearby and the weekend approaching after a strong rebound, bulls may need to tread carefully — especially with SPI 200 futures softer after Iran reportedly rejected the US peace proposal

Source: ASX, LSEG

ASX 200 Technical Analysis

ASX 200 GEX Levels Suggest Sellers Retain Near-Term Control

ASX 200 traders face a weak open after SPI 200 futures fell sharply overnight and slipped beneath weekly VWAP, shifting near-term risk back to the downside. The 8900 and 8850 strikes are now likely to act as overhead resistance on rebounds, while 8875 remains the key battleground level where traders may look for signs of acceptance or rejection after the open.

Source: ASX, TradingView

SPI 200 futures are sitting around the monthly pivot point, though a break beneath 8700 could open the door to the 8600 area and nearby swing lows. The recent two-day rally in SPI futures was not accompanied by a meaningful rise in open interest, suggesting bears still retain broader control after dominating positioning during the previous decline.

Source: ASX24, TradingView

If sellers maintain control beneath 8875, downside pressure could build towards 8775 and 8750 where put support becomes more concentrated, while the 200-day EMA just above 8800 may also attract dip buyers
If bears really take control, the 200-day EMA and 8725 major call cluster could come into focus as the next key downside support zone
However, if bulls can reclaim 8875 and stabilise above it, the market could rotate back toward 8850 and potentially 8900 later in the session.

View the full economic calendar

-- Written by Matt Simpson

Follow Matt on Twitter @cLeverEdge

The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Products and services available depend on your location and the entity holding your account. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

Please note that foreign exchange and other leveraged trading involves significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved, seeking independent advice if necessary.

Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available to US residents.

FOREX.com is a trading name of GAIN Capital - FOREX.com Canada Limited, 30 Independence Blvd, Suite 300 (3rd floor), Warren, NJ 07059, USA is a member of the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization and Member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund. GAIN Capital – FOREX.com Canada Limited is a wholly-owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc.

Complaints are taken very seriously at FOREX.com. You can view our complaints procedure here.

Know your advisor