Canadian Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD/CAD Rebound Tests Downtrend Resistance

Canadian Dollar Technical Outlook: USD/CAD Short-term Trade Levels

USD/CAD has rebounded after a sharp decline from the yearly highs.
Price is now approaching downtrend resistance within a broader bearish structure- risk for near-term inflection.
Rejection here would favor continuation of the April downtrend while a sustained break higher would suggest a more meaningful recovery is underway.
Resistance 1.3649/50, 1.3722/33 (key), 1.3808/18- Support 1.3582, 1.3550 (key), 1.3485

USD/CAD is attempting to recover after a sharp selloff from recent highs, with price now approaching a key resistance zone within the broader downtrend. The bounce reflects a near-term shift in momentum, but the underlying structure remains fragile as the pair tests this barrier. The focus now turns to whether the recovery can extend or if the downtrend reasserts itself in the sessions ahead. Battle lines drawn on the USD/CAD short-term technical charts heading into NFPs and Canada employment.

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Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CAD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Canadian Dollar Short-term Outlook, we noted that USD/CAD was testing, “pivotal support here and we are on the lookout for possible price inflection off this zone. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce portions of short-exposure / lower protective stops- rallies should be limited to 1.3821 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 1.3722 needed to fuel the next leg of the decline.” USD/CAD broke lower the following day with the decline extending nearly 3% off the yearly high into the open of May. Price rebounded off support on Friday at the February close-low near 1.3550. The focus is on this recovery within the April downtrend with initial resistance now view.

Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CAD on TradingView

Notes: A closer look at Canadian Dollar price action shows USD/CAD continuing to trade within the confines of the descending pitchfork we have been tracking off the April high. The upper parallel is just above today’s high with the first lateral level eyed at the 61.8% retracement of the most recent decline and the 23.6% retracement of the year-to-date range at 1.3649/50. Note that the 1.786% extension slope (which caught the downside in April) converges on this level into the close of the week and a breach / close above this slope would be needed to suggest a more significant low is in place and a larger trend reversal is underway.

Key resistance remains unchanged at 1.3722/33- a region defined by the September & August swing lows, the objective yearly open, the February opening-range high, and the 38.2% retracement of the November decline. Strength surpassing this threshold would put the bulls back in control with subsequent resistance eyed at the 61.8% retracement and the 200-day moving average at 1.3808/18.

Initial support rest with the May open at 1.3582 and is backed the monthly range low / February close-low at 1.3550. A break / close below this level would threaten downtrend resumption towards the yearly low and the September 2024 low-day close (LDC) at 1.3482/85. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

Bottom line: The USD/CAD rebound has extended nearly 0.6% off the lows with the near-term advance now approaching downtrend resistance- risk for inflection early in the month. From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to 1.3650 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 1.3550 needed to fuel the next major leg of the decline.

Keep in mind we get the release of key labor market data from both the U.S. and Canada this week with the ADP report tomorrow and Non-Farm Payrolls & Canada employment on tap Friday. We are in the early throws of the May opening-range with price trading at multi-week lows ahead of key data releases. Stay nimble here and watch the weekly close for guidance. Review my latest Canadian Dollar Weekly Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term USD/CAD technical trade levels.

Key USD/CAD Economic Data Releases

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Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

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