Euro Technical Outlook: EUR/USD Short-term Trade Levels
- EUR/USD has pulled back after failing at a major resistance zone.
- Price is now approaching a critical support area within the multi-week uptrend.
- A break below support would signal a potential trend shift and deeper correction while a holding could stabilize price and keep the broader recovery intact.
- Resistance 1.1814/26 (key), 1.1919, 1.2020- Support 1.1667/82 (key), 1.1598-1.1612, 1.1553
EUR/USD is turning lower after failing to sustain gains near recent highs, with price now approaching a key support zone within the broader uptrend structure. The pullback reflects a loss of near-term momentum following the recent rally, shifting focus to whether this move remains corrective or develops into a deeper reversal. The reaction at support will be critical in determining the next directional move. Battle lines drawn on the Euro short-term technical charts.
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Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD Daily
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView
Technical Outlook: In last month’s Euro Short-term Technical Outlook we noted that EUR/USD was approaching downtrend resistance and that, “From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 1.1492 IF price is indeed heading higher on this stretch with a close above 1.1612 ultimately needed to invalidate the January downtrend.” EUR/USD registered an intraday low at 1.1505 four-days later before reversing sharply higher with the advance extending more than 3.8% off the yearly low.
The rally faltered at confluent resistance last week at 1.1814/26- a region defined by the 1.618% extension of the March advance and the 61.8% retracement of the February decline. Euro has fallen more than 1.1% off those highs with price now approaching confluent support at the lower bounds of the March uptrend. Looking for a reaction there IF reached for guidance.
Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD 240min
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView
Notes: A closer look at Euro price action shows EUR/USD trading within the confines of an ascending pitchfork extending off the late-March low. A slip below the yearly open today at 1.1745 is now approaching confluent support near 1.1667/81- a region defined by the March 10 swing high, the 200-day moving average, and the 38.2% retracement of the advance off the yearly low. Note that the lower parallel converges on this threshold today and a break / close below this slope is needed to suggest a more significant high is in place and a larger trend reversal is underway. Subsequent support rests with the January low-close and the 100% extension of the January decline at 1.1598-1.1612.
Yearly open resistance is eyed at 1.1745 with key resistance steady at 1.1814/26. A breach / daily close above this level is needed to mark resumption of the uptrend with subsequent resistance objectives seen at the 2025 swing high at 1.1919 and the 38.2% retracement of the broader 2008 decline at 1.2020.
Bottom line: Euro turned from confluent resistance last week with the pullback now approaching uptrend support. From a trading standpoint, look to reduce short-exposure lower protective stops on a stretch towards the lower parallel- rallies would need to be limited to 1.1826 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 1.1667 needed to fuel the next leg of the decline.
Keep in mind we get Eurozone and US PMI figures tomorrow with the Fed & ECB rate decisions on tap next week. Stay nimble into the releases and watch the weekly closes here for guidance. Review my latest Euro Technical Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term EUR/USD trade levels.
Key EUR/USD Economic Data Releases
Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.
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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist
Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex
