Nasdaq 100 Analysis: NDX Continues to Struggle for Direction Near Record Highs

Over recent trading sessions, the Nasdaq 100 has continued to display an increasingly evident lack of direction in the short term. This can be seen in recent price action, as the index has recorded a move of just over 1.00% on average over the last four trading sessions, highlighting a period of neutrality that continues to limit a clearer directional move. For now, this lack of momentum remains part of the market even after events such as Jackson Hole, which have failed to consistently strengthen demand across the technology sector. As a result, mixed price action remains a key theme and could continue to be relevant over the coming trading sessions.

Factors That Could Continue Limiting Demand Activity

The first element worth considering is that the Jackson Hole event once again put the possibility of a September rate hike on the table. Comments from Kevin Warsh highlighted that inflation remains a relevant concern as long as it stays above the 2.00% target area. In addition, CME Group probabilities are now showing more than a 60% chance of a rate increase at the Federal Reserve's mid-September meeting.

This situation is particularly important for one of Nasdaq's main competing markets: U.S. Treasuries. Following Jackson Hole, 10-year Treasury yields climbed to new highs for 2026 above the 4.75% area. This development increases the relative attractiveness of fixed-income assets and may be limiting part of the capital available for risk-oriented markets such as Nasdaq.

Source: TradingEconomics

Another factor that continues to influence the index is the significant level of investment in artificial intelligence across the technology sector. Current estimates suggest that AI-related CapEx could exceed $700 billion in 2026 alone. The debate is no longer centered on whether companies can continue spending, but rather on when this investment will begin translating more clearly into margins and earnings capable of justifying it.

This dynamic was partially reflected in the case of Nvidia, whose stock continues to trade around the $220 area despite reporting results above expectations. The market appears to be entering a stage where simply beating forecasts is no longer enough to trigger a dominant buying response. Instead, investors increasingly want evidence that future growth can significantly exceed already elevated expectations.

Taking all of this into account, the market is facing a combination of factors that could continue limiting demand around Nasdaq. On one hand, the possibility of a more aggressive Federal Reserve continues to support the appeal of alternative assets such as bonds. On the other, uncertainty remains regarding how quickly massive AI investments will translate into meaningful profitability.

This can also be seen among the index's largest components, where mixed performance continues to dominate. While Tesla has gained nearly 5.00%, companies such as Amazon and Alphabet have declined by more than 2.00%. This divergence continues to reflect a lack of alignment in demand that has become even more noticeable following the comments delivered at Jackson Hole.

Source: slickcharts

As a result, the slowdown in buying momentum observed over recent weeks may be becoming more evident now that most major companies have already reported earnings and market attention has shifted back toward monetary policy. As long as these concerns remain in place, a period of indecision could continue to be an important feature of Nasdaq price action in the sessions ahead.

 

Long-Term Confidence Continues to Show Caution

The medium- and long-term outlook continues to reflect signs of uncertainty. This can be observed through the AAII sentiment survey, where expectations for the stock market over the next six months show 32.9% bullish sentiment, 22.6% neutrality, and 44.4% bearish sentiment. These readings indicate that a significant portion of market participants still have reservations about the market's ability to sustain consistent growth over the coming months and continue to lean toward more cautious scenarios.

Part of those concerns remains linked to the possibility that interest rates could stay elevated for longer and that meaningful easing of restrictions on consumption and liquidity within the U.S. economy may not materialize soon. This continues to point to an environment that is not yet entirely favorable for a stronger expansion of the technology sector.

Source: AAII

Unless confidence indicators begin to show a clearer direction, uncertainty is likely to remain an important factor for Nasdaq. The absence of a dominant conviction between bullish and bearish views could continue supporting consolidation and price action without a clearly defined trend during the weeks ahead.

 

Nasdaq 100 Technical Outlook

Source: StoneX, Tradingview

• Indecision Remains a Constant: For several weeks, Nasdaq has continued to respect a trading range between resistance at 30,700 points and support at 28,300 points. Recent price movements remain insufficient to break either boundary, making this structure the most important technical pattern currently visible on the chart.
   
• RSI: The RSI continues to fluctuate around the neutral 50 level, a sign that the balance between buyers and sellers remains relatively stable. As long as the indicator stays near this area, the lack of direction could continue to dominate short-term price action.
   
• MACD: A similar reading can be observed in the MACD, whose histogram remains close to the neutral 0 line. This suggests that the average strength of short-term moving averages remains balanced and reinforces the importance of the current consolidation phase.
   

Key Levels to Watch:

• 30,700 Points – Key Resistance: This level represents the most important upside barrier on the chart and coincides with the highs recorded during 2026. A move back toward this area could challenge the current sideways structure and open the door to a more dominant bullish bias over the coming weeks.
   

• 29,300 Points – Nearby Barrier: This level coincides with the 50-period Simple Moving Average. As long as price continues to develop around this area, the neutrality observed in recent weeks may remain in place, allowing the current trading range to continue acting as the dominant structure.
   
• 28,300 Points – Key Support: An important support zone that coincides with a major consolidation phase observed in April of this year. If selling pressure extends toward this level, a stronger bearish bias could begin to emerge and potentially open the door to a short-term downtrend.
   

Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst

Follow him on: @julianpineda25