Swiss Franc Forecast: USD/CHF Rally Rejected at Resistance

Swiss Franc Technical Forecast: USD/CHF Weekly Trade Levels

USD/CHF June rally falters at former support, trading mid-range into the monthly close
USD/CHF well-defined range breakout pending- U.S. Core PCE tap Friday
Resistance 8103, 8222/45 (key), 8380/8416 – Support 7946, 7882 (key), 7769

USD/CHF has struggled into resistance at former support for the last five weeks with a well-defined range now in view into the monthly close. The immediate focus is on a breakout of a nine-week range with the bulls vulnerable while below the 81-handle. Battle lines drawn on the USD/CHF weekly technical chart.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this USD/CHF setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Swiss Franc Price Chart – USD/CHF Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CHF on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Swiss Franc Technical Forecast we noted that that USD/CHF had rebounded off support with a, “weekly close above 8103 on Friday needed to keep the immediate advance viable into the August open.” Despite registering an intraweek high at 8171, price was unable to mark a weekly close above resistance with USD/CHF now off 1.8% from the monthly high.

Initial support rests with the yearly low-week close (LWC) at 7946 and the immediate focus is on a breakout of the nine-week range between 7946-8103 for guidance here. Ultimately a break / close below the 1.618% extension of the May decline at 7881 is needed to mark resumption of the broader downtrend. Subsequent support objectives seen at the 2011 LWC at 7769, the 2011 low close at 7669 and the 78.6% retracement of the broader 2012 advance at 7537.

A breach of this multi-month range would expose a larger recovery toward the 8221/45- a region defined by the 1.618% extension of the June advance and the 61.8% retracement of the May decline. Note that the median-line converges on this threshold over the next few weeks further highlights the technical significance of this zone next month- look for a larger reaction there IF reached. The next major technical considerations are eyed with the 38.2% retracement of the yearly range / 2023 LWC / 2024 yearly open at 8380-8416 and the 200DMA / July 2023 low at 8543/55.

Bottom line: USD/CHF is trading in the middle of a nine-week range just below resistance- look for a breakout of the 7946-8103 range for guidance. From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to 8245 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 7882 needed to mark downtrend resumption.

Keep in mind we get the release of key U.S. inflation data this week with the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) on tap Friday. Stay nimble into the monthly cross here and watch the weekly closes for guidance. Review my latest Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term USD/CHF technical trade levels.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

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