Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook: USD/CHF Coils Above Key Support

Swiss Franc Technical Forecast: USD/CHF Short-term Trade Levels

USD/CHF trading within multi-week, falling wedge formation just above key support
USD/CHF breakout pending- Swiss inflation / US Non-Farm Payrolls on tap
Resistance 8057 (key), 8101, 8123- Support 8007, 7987 (key), 7911

Swiss Franc is trading within a contractionary range into the monthly open with USD/CHF rebounding off key support early in the week. The focus is on a breakout in the days ahead with key U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls on tap Friday. Battles lines drawn on the USD/CHF short-term technical charts.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this USD/CHF setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Swiss Franc Price Chart – USD/CHF Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CHF on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook we noted that USD/CHF had broken out of a multi-month downtrend and that, “From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 7973 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 8186 needed to fuel the next leg of the advance.” USD/CHF plunged nearly 2.3% off the August highs to register an intraday low at 7986 before rebounding into the September open. The focus is on a breakout of this August consolidation range (falling wedge pattern) with price testing initial resistance today at the 38.2% retracement of the August decline at 8057- looking for a reaction off this mark in the days ahead.

Swiss Franc Price Chart – USD/CHF 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CHF on TradingView

Notes: A closer look at Swisse price action shows USD/CHF testing the upper bounds of the multi-week consolidation with price holding just below resistance into the open of New York trade on Wednesday. The weekly opening-range is now set and we’re looking for a breakout for guidance here.

Weekly open support rests at 8007 with key support steady at 7987- a region defined by the 61.8% retracement of the July rally and the 100% extension of the near-term decline. A break / close below this threshold would suggest a more significant high is in place / a larger breakdown is underway. Subsequent support seen at the yearly low-day close (LDC) at 7911 and 7872/82.

A topside breakout of this formation exposes subsequent resistance objectives at the 61.8% retracement at 8101 and the objective August open near 8123. Key resistance remains unchanged at the 50% retracement of the May decline / May low at 8174/85 - look for a larger reaction there IF reached with a breach / close above this threshold needed to mark uptrend resumption. Subsequent resistance objectives eyed at the 61.8% retracement near 8246 and the 2023 low at 8333.

Bottom line: USD/CHF is coiling just above critical support, and the focus is on a breakout of this multi-week consolidation in the days ahead. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to the weekly open IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above the late- July trendline needed to fuel the next leg of the advance.

Keep in mind we get the release of Swiss CPI figures and US ADP employment data tomorrow with the Non-Farm Payrolls on tap Friday. Stay nimble into the prints and watch the weekly close for guidance here. Review my latest Swiss Franc Weekly Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term USD/CHF technical trade levels.

USD/CHF Key Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Short-term Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Products and services available depend on your location and the entity holding your account. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

Please note that foreign exchange and other leveraged trading involves significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved, seeking independent advice if necessary.

Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available to US residents.

FOREX.com is a trading name of GAIN Capital - FOREX.com Canada Limited, 30 Independence Blvd, Suite 300 (3rd floor), Warren, NJ 07059, USA is a member of the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization and Member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund. GAIN Capital – FOREX.com Canada Limited is a wholly-owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc.

Complaints are taken very seriously at FOREX.com. You can view our complaints procedure here.

Know your advisor