US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Report Preview (MAR 2025)
The US is expected to add 140K jobs in March, while the Unemployment Rate is seen holding steady at 4.1% during the same period.
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US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)
The US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report showed a 151K rise in February versus forecasts for a 160K print, while Average Hourly Earnings increased to 4.0% from 3.9% during the same period.
US Economic Calendar – March 7
A deeper look at the report showed the Unemployment Rate unexpectedly widening to 4.1% from 4.0% in January even as the Labor Force Participation Rate narrowed to 62.4% from 62.6% during the same period.
At the same time, the update from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed that ‘employment trended up in health care, financial activities, transportation and warehousing, and social assistance,’ with the report going onto say that ‘the change in total nonfarm payroll employment for December was revised up by 16,000, from +307,000 to +323,000, and the change for January was revised down by 18,000, from +143,000 to +125,000.’
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EUR/USD Chart – 15 Minute
Chart Prepared by David Song, Senior Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView
The US Dollar shows a mixed reaction to the softer-than-expected NFP print, with EUR/USD consolidating following the release to end the week at 1.0833. The pullback in EUR/USD was short-lived as it climbed to a fresh monthly high (1.0947) during the following week.
Looking ahead, the US is expected to add 140K jobs in March, while the Unemployment Rate is seen holding steady at 4.1% during the same period.
With that said, indications of a strong labor market may lead to a bullish reaction in the US Dollar as it encourages the Federal Reserve to keep US interest rates on hold, but a weaker-than-expected NFP report may drag on the Greenback as it fuels speculation for a Fed rate-cut.
Additional Market Outlooks
Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Rebound Fizzles Ahead of Trump Tariffs
Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Cup-and-Handle Formation Takes Shape
Gold Price Halts Decline from Record High Ahead of Trump Tariffs
Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Coils Ahead of RBA Rate Decision
--- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist
Follow on Twitter at @DavidJSong
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