Daily Key Short Term Technical Levels Tues 05 Dec 2017

FX – USD short-term downtrend remains intact

• EUR/USD – Attempted to stage a push down but managed to stall right at the 1.1850/1827 key short-term support. No change, maintain bullish bias with 1.1920 as the upside trigger level (minor descending trendline from 27 Nov 2017 high + close to a Fibonacci cluster) and an hourly close above 1.1920 shall increase the odds for a further potential push up to target the next intermediate resistance at 1.2000 in the first step follow by the 1.2070/2090 (swing high area of 08 Sep 2017 + upper boundary of the minor ascending channel in place since 07 Nov 2017 low).
• GBP/USD – Inched lower after the on-going Brexit negotiation talks met a roadblock due to issues surrounding Ireland’s border concessions but the pair still manged to hold above the 1.3375 key short-term support. No change, maintain bullish bias for a potential push up to retest 1.3660 (medium-term swing high of 20 Sep 2017) in the first step.
• AUD/USD – Rise in progress after a test on the 0.7595/87 key short-term support in yesterday (04 Dec) European session (printed a low of 0.7579 before it pushed back up above 0.7587 within an hour). Today (05 Dec) Asian session rally is reinforced by a better that expected AU retails sales for Oct (0.5% m/m versus consensus of 0.3% m/m). No change, maintain bullish bias above tightened key short-term support now at 0.7605 (yesterday’s U.S. session swing high area +  minor ascending trendline from 01 Dec 2017 low) for a further potential push up to target the next intermediate resistance at 0.7660/7670 and above 0.7670 opens up scope towards the significant resistance of 0.7730/7760 (the former major pull-back support from 18 Apr 2016 high that was broken down in Oct 2017 + Fibonacci cluster).
• NZD/USD – Rise in progress as expected. No change, maintain bullish bias above tightened key short-term support now at 0.6867 for a further potential push up to target the intermediate resistances of 0.6930 before 0.6960 (08 Nov 2017 swing high area + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the multi-month decline from 27 Jul 2017 high to 17 Nov 2017 low).
• USD/JPY – Challenged the 112.70/90 key short-term resistance (printed a high of 113.09 in yesterday, 04 Dec U.S. session) before it retreated below 112.70 and formed a daily bearish “Shooting Star” candlestick pattern at the end of the U.S. session (a sign of a slow-down in the recent upside momentum of the push up in price action). Thus no conviction to see a recovery at this juncture in conjunction with the S&P 500 (the USD/JPY has moved in direct lock-step with the S&P 500 in the last 5 days) that retreated from its key medium-term resistance zone of 2668/83. Tolerate the excess to 113.09 and maintain bearish bias with 111.60 remains as the downside trigger level where an  hourly close below 111.60 is required to increase the odds of the start of another potential downleg to target the next intermediate support at 110.60/50 (former medium-term range resistance of 16/31 Aug 2017 + Fibonacci projection cluster).

 Commodities – Gold remains above range support

• Gold – No change, maintain bullish bias above 1265 range support in place since 06 Oct 2017 for a potential push up towards the range resistance of 1290/98.
• WTI Crude (Jan 2018) – Mix elements prevails, prefer to turn neutral now between 59.00 (25 Nov 2017 swing high) & 56.80 (30 Nov 2017 minor swing low).

Stock Indices (CFD) – Daily bearish candlesticks have formed across the board in major U.S benchmark indexes

• US SP 500 - Retreated right below the lower limit of the predefined 2668/83 key medium-term resistance zone (printed a high of 2665 in yesterday, 04 Dec U.S. session). Refer to the  latest weekly technical outlook for the details. Thereafter, it formed a daily bearish “Engulfing” pattern at the end of the U.S. session. In conjunction other benchmark U.S. stock indexes had formed similar daily candlestick pattern; (Nasdaq 100 – Bearish Engulfing) & (Russell 2000 – Shooting Star). Interestingly, the Russell 2000 that comprises the small-caps which tends to reap the most benefits from the U.S. tax reform plans and yesterday’s price action has suggested that the market may have already priced in the positive impact from the U.S. tax plans. Turn bearish below 2668 for the SP 500 for a further potential slide to retest 2604. A break below 2604 is likely to increase the odds for the start of a multi-week decline.
• Japan 225 – No change, maintain bearish bias below 23010 key medium-term resistance with 22500 as the downside trigger level (last Fri, 01 Dec U.S session swing low area + minor ascending trendline from 15 Nov 2017 low) and an hourly close below 22500 is likely to increase the odds of another corrective downleg to retest the 21830 minor swing low area of 15 Nov 2017.
• Hong Kong 50 – Managed to hold above the 28870 key medium-term support in today (05 Dec) Asian session despite a weak closing seen in the U.S. S&P 500. This market can be an outlier against the rest of the majors as the movement seen in the Hong Kong (Hang Seng) in the past 10 days has been dependant on the movement in the China stock market. Interestingly, the benchmark ChinaA50 index has managed to find support for its recent decline right at its medium-term ascending channel support at 12800 in place since May 2017 low. Maintain bullish bias for a potential push up to the intermediate resistance of 29600 (minor descending trendline from 21 Nov 2017 high).
• Australia 200 –  No change, maintain bearish bias below the 6013/6033 (excess) key medium-term resistance and an hourly close below 5950 is required to validate another potential leg of corrective decline towards the next intermediate support at 5900.
• Germany 30 – Maintain bearish bias below 13220 key medium-term resistance for a potential push down to retest 12800 (last Fri, 01 Dec 2017 swing low area + 15 Nov 2017 swing low area) in the first step.

 *Levels are obtained from City Index Advantage TraderPro platform

Disclaimer