Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA looks to trade tariff deadline developments

US futures

Dow futures 0.78% at 44839

S&P futures 0.7% at 6266

Nasdaq futures 0.53% at 23977

In Europe

FTSE -0.05% at 8815

DAX 0.74% at 23978

• US stocks rise cautiously ahead of looming deadline
• A lack of clarity surrounding the July 9 deadline
• Tesla slumps after Musk’s political move
• Oil slips after OPEC+ lifts output

Attention is squarely on trade policies & Tesla’s decline

US futures are rising on Monday after the extended holiday weekend. Uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade tariff policies are keeping investors cautious, whilst Tesla is taking a hit after Musk announced plans to launch a political party.

President Trump said the White House is close to finalising several trade agreements in the coming days. He said other countries will be notified of higher tariff rates by July 9. These higher rates will take effect from August 1. Trump also threatened an extra 10% tariff on countries aligning themselves with the anti-American policies of the BRICS group.

While the picture seems relatively unclear, the new August 1st date suggests that countries may have a three-week reprieve to finalize a deal with the US.

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 closed at record highs on Thursday, following a surprise surge in the US nonfarm payroll report, which indicated resilience in the US labor market. Futures fell on Friday when the stock markets were closed for Independence Day.

Looking out across this week, the economic calendar is relatively quiet. The focus will remain on Trump's trade tariffs and the FOMC meeting minutes, scheduled for release on Wednesday.

Currently, traders have priced out a July rate cut, with a September cut priced at 66% according to the Fed watch tool.

Corporate news

Tesla is falling almost 7% premarket after Elon Musk announced the formation of a US political party, marking an escalation in his feud with Trump. Tesla's AI future and robo-taxis are positives for Tesla, but Musk's political ambitions are proving to be a major headwind.

NVIDIA is on track to become the world's most valuable company in history, with the market capitalization nearing $4 trillion. The share price is modestly pointing to a modestly lower start on the open.

Dow Jones forecast – technical analysis

The Dow Jones has extended its recovery to 44,800, just shy of its 45,000 record high reached in January. The RSI is tipping into overbought territory, so some consolidation could be on the cards. Buyers will look to extend the bullish run above 45,0000 to fresh record highs. Meanwhile, immediate support is at 44,500. Below here, 44,000 could offer some support. It would take a drop below 42,800 to negate the near-term bull trend.

FX markets – USD rises, EUR/USD falls

The USD is rising but remains close to a 3.5-year low as investors focus on trump trade tariffs developments ahead of a quiet week for economic data.

The EUR/USD is falling to 1.1725 with EU-U.S. trade talks in focus ahead of the deadline this week. The two sides are aiming to agree on a basic framework before details will likely be thrashed out over the summer. Meanwhile, eurozone retail sales fell 0.7% in line with expectations, also marking the steepest decline since August 2023. The slump in sales came after an upwardly revised every .3% increase in April.

GBP/USD is struggling around A2 two-week low after falling sharply last week. To plug a growing black hole in the government's finances, Chancellor Rachel Reeves will need to hike taxes. The UK economic calendar is relatively quiet this week, with attention on GDP figures on Friday.

Oil falls after OPEC+ meeting

Oil prices are falling; they have recovered from session lows after OPEC+ announced a further output increase in August, this time of 540,000 barrels per day, up from the 411,000 barrels per day announced in the previous three months.

An increase in output comes as investors also brace for U.S. trade tariffs and their potential impact on economic growth, and therefore on the demand outlook for oil.

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