
USD/JPY weekly forecast: Suspected rate check revives intervention threat
A hawkish Fed, a dovish BOJ hike and a suspected rate check have left USD/JPY caught between powerful rates support and renewed intervention risk.
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A hawkish Fed, a dovish BOJ hike and a suspected rate check have left USD/JPY caught between powerful rates support and renewed intervention risk.

Central bank decisions will dominate the calendar, but with both hikes largely expected, energy prices, US yields and lingering threat of intervention could prove just as important.

Intervention innuendo, confused Fed messaging and a hawkish BOJ repricing drove a violent move lower in USD/JPY last week. Strong payrolls stopped the slide, leaving this week’s inflation data to determine whether the rebound sticks.

USD/JPY has finally woken from its slumber. Payrolls now loom as the key test of whether the latest hawkish repricing sticks or sinks.

USD/JPY remains perched above major trend support as intervention risk and Jackson Hole raise the stakes for the next directional move.

Treasury is fighting market forces just as Warsh wants them to do more of the work. The battle over who sets long-term borrowing costs could be the defining driver for USD/JPY this week.

USD/JPY barely responded to softer US data and falling Fed hike bets last week. With the calendar thinning, the price action may be the more important signal.

Speculative yen shorts are far less stretched, but the focus now shifts to US inflation. Another hot print could quickly revive Fed hike expectations and support USD/JPY.

Coordinated intervention has pushed fundamentals and technicals into the background for now. The next chapter will likely be written by Friday's payrolls report.

The bullish breakout played out exactly as anticipated last week. Now traders face a bigger question: can higher energy prices and widening policy divergence propel USD/JPY through 164?

USD/JPY has broken out of its July range to trade at fresh yearly highs. Key resistance just overhead may determine whether the rally accelerates or stalls.

The yen remains on the back foot despite softer US inflation, while USD/JPY continues to compress beneath key resistance. Here's what matters this week and the levels that could determine the next major move.

For the first time in months, USD/JPY no longer looks like a straightforward buy-the-dip trade. Intervention risk, stretched positioning and arrival of a bearish technical signal have changed the complexion of the market.
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