
USD/JPY Weekly Outlook: Oil shock offsets mounting AI concerns
USD/JPY has barely moved despite tumbling US Treasury yields and a sharp selloff in AI stocks. Can elevated energy prices continue to offset the pressure?
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USD/JPY has barely moved despite tumbling US Treasury yields and a sharp selloff in AI stocks. Can elevated energy prices continue to offset the pressure?

A rebound from yearly-open support has revived the USD/JPY recovery, but bulls still need a decisive weekly close to unlock further upside.

AI sentiment has become a major driver of US Treasury yields and USD/JPY. With Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon reporting this week, central bank decisions may have competition for traders' attention.

The yen has ignored broad dollar weakness, falling Treasury yields and renewed market turbulence. Yet its relationship with US interest rates remains intact. So why is USD/JPY going absolutely nowhere fast?

USD/JPY has barely budged in October, with the price trapped between key moving averages. Could US inflation finally deliver the catalyst needed to break the stalemate?

USD/JPY’s tight relationship with front-end US rates broke down sharply last week, but quarter-turn flows and positioning suggest the disconnect may prove temporary.

Strong US growth and hawkish Fed pricing continue to support USD/JPY, while intervention risk appears to be kicking in at lower levels

USD/JPY momentum has shifted sharply higher, putting a major resistance confluence in focus as U.S. and Japanese event risk builds.

A hawkish Fed, a dovish BOJ hike and a suspected rate check have left USD/JPY caught between powerful rates support and renewed intervention risk.

Central bank decisions will dominate the calendar, but with both hikes largely expected, energy prices, US yields and lingering threat of intervention could prove just as important.

Intervention innuendo, confused Fed messaging and a hawkish BOJ repricing drove a violent move lower in USD/JPY last week. Strong payrolls stopped the slide, leaving this week’s inflation data to determine whether the rebound sticks.

USD/JPY has finally woken from its slumber. Payrolls now loom as the key test of whether the latest hawkish repricing sticks or sinks.

USD/JPY remains perched above major trend support as intervention risk and Jackson Hole raise the stakes for the next directional move.
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