Featured Trade AUDJPY retreated from range top
AUD/JPY may see a further push down from 79.85 range top.
Share this:
Short-term technical outlook on AUD/JPY (Tues 26 Feb)
Key elements
- The recent recovery of 910 pips from its 03 Jan 2019 flash crash low of 70.66 has led the AUD/JPY cross pair to retest the pull-back of the former long-term secular “symmetrical triangle” range support now acting as resistance at 79.85. It has failed to stage a bullish break above it thrice; on 05 Feb, 21 Feb and 25 Feb 2019 (see daily & weekly charts)
- In addition, the daily RSI oscillator also has started to retreat for a significant corresponding resistance at the 60 level.
- In the shorter-term, the AUD/JPY has formed a toppish “Expanding Wedge” range configuration right below the 79.85 resistance in motion since 15 Feb 2019 minor low of 78.07. The lower boundary of the “Expanding Wedge” is now acting as a support at 78.50 (see 1-hour chart).
- The hourly Stochastic oscillator has continued to inch downwards after the bearish divergence signal at its overbought zone. It is now fast approaching an extreme oversold level which indicates the price action of the AUD/JPY may shape a minor bounce at this juncture (above 79.20) towards the intermediate resistance at 79.50 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent slide seen from 25 Feb 2019 high to today, 26 Feb Asian session low of 79.20.
Key Levels (1 to 3 days)
Intermediate resistance: 79.50
Pivot (key resistance): 79.85
Supports: 78.50 & 77.50
Next resistance: 81.20
Conclusion
If the 79.85 key pivotal resistance is not surpassed, the AUD/JPY is likely to stage another round of potential slide to test the lower boundary of the minor “Expanding Wedge” at 78.50. An hourly close below 78.50 shall open up scope for a further push down towards the medium-term range support at 77.50.
However, a clearance above 79.85 invalidates the bearish scenario for a squeeze up towards the next intermediate resistance at 81.20 (former minor swing low areas of 21 Nov/07 Dec 2018).
Related tags:
Latest market news
Open an account in minutes
Experience award-winning platforms with fast and secure execution, and enjoy tight spreads from 0.5 pts on FX and 0.3 pts on indices.
Economic calendar
Web Trader platform
Our sophisticated web-based platform is packed with features.
Related articles
EUR/USD weekly outlook: Oil, inflation and NFP in focus
After coming under significant pressure in recent weeks, the EUR/USD came off its lows to finish the week on a positive note on Friday, albeit with only a mild rebound. That was not enough to prevent the exchange rate falling for the third consecutive week, as the US dollar and bond yields rallied across the board.
EUR/USD Q4 2026 Outlook: Euro at a Crossroads as Fed, ECB Tighten 9 25 2026
EUR/USD enters Q4 at a pivotal inflection point as competing Fed-ECB policy paths and persistent inflation risks collide with major technical support.
AUD/USD Q4 Outlook: RBA and Fed Hikes Set the Tone
AUD/USD enters Q4 with RBA and Fed hikes in focus as sticky inflation, rising unemployment and US dollar strength shape the Australian dollar.
This report is intended for general circulation only. It should not be construed as a recommendation, or an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any financial products. The information provided does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Before you act on any recommendation that may be contained in this report, independent advice ought to be sought from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd., may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities or affiliates within the StoneX group of companies or third parties pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed to a person in Singapore who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or an institutional investor (as defined in the Securities Futures Act), StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. accepts legal responsibility to such persons for the contents of the report only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. at 6826 9988 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.
In the case of all other recipients of this report, to the extent permitted by applicable laws and regulations neither StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. nor its associated companies will be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information contained in this report and all such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the content of this report is complete or accurate.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. is not under any obligation to update this report.
Trading CFDs carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for some investors. Consider your investment objectives, level of experience, financial resources, risk appetite and other relevant circumstances carefully. The possibility exists that you could lose some or all of your investments, including your initial deposits. If in doubt, please seek independent expert advice. Visit www.forex.com/en-sg/terms-and-policies for the complete Risk Disclosure Statement.