Fed Dovish Shift Sparks Global Rally as Rate-Cut Odds Hit 60%

Market Summary – 24 November 2025

Global & US Markets

• Fed cut bets surge: Traders now price roughly a 60% chance of a 25 bp rate cut in December after dovish remarks from Fed’s John Williams, who said current policy remains “modestly restrictive” and that cuts are possible soon.
• Market reaction: The comments sparked a rebound in risk assets — S&P 500 +0.98%, Nasdaq +0.77%, Dow +1.08%, Russell 2000 +2.8% — while bonds rallied on dovish repricing.
• Data delays: The October CPI release has been cancelled, and November CPI will come only after the December FOMC meeting, leaving the Fed without fresh inflation or labour data before its decision.
• Global follow-through: Asian and European equities climbed (MSCI Asia-Pacific +1%), with futures indicating further upside across major US and EU indices.
• Currency moves: The dollar stayed firm; the yen hovered near a 10-month low, with traders wary of potential Japanese intervention during a thin week.
• Commodities: Oil remained soft amid optimism on US-Ukraine sanctions talks, while gold held steady near USD 4,060/oz; sterling firmed ahead of the UK budget.
• China: Equities were mixed; chipmakers fell on reports the US may allow Nvidia to sell certain processors to China.

Trade & Tariffs

• US policy: The White House is drafting a tariff fallback plan pending court rulings.
• Nvidia to China: Trump’s team has internally discussed permitting H200 chip sales to China but no decision has been made; export licenses remain mandatory.
• EU: Plans to tighten foreign investment screening to prevent Chinese firms from benefiting from open markets without technology transfer.
• China–Italy: Beijing invited more Italian firms to invest, stressing the need for a fair and transparent environment.
• Canada–Europe: Canadian PM Carney and EU leaders, including Merz and Macron, discussed partnerships in critical minerals, AI, clean energy, aerospace, and defence.
• Canada–India: Launch of trade talks aimed at doubling bilateral trade to USD 70 bn; further progress expected with Mercosur.
• UK: Abolished the “de minimis” import rule; all parcels below GBP 135 will now be subject to tariffs.

G20 and Global Affairs

• G20 summit (Johannesburg): Envoys agreed on a draft leaders’ declaration referencing climate change despite the US absence, as President Trump boycotts the meeting.
• Climate talks: The EU rejected a draft COP30 deal, citing insufficient emissions-reduction commitments. Private firms are increasingly filling data gaps as the US scales back climate funding.
• Africa:
  • The UN seeks access to al-Fashir (Sudan) amid reports of atrocities.
  • Tanzania acknowledged damage to its investment image.
  • Gabon signed a major climate-finance deal for Congo Basin rainforests.

US Equities Outlook 2026

• 2025 performance: The S&P 500 +12% YTD; all sectors except consumer discretionary in positive territory.
• Sector divergence: Defensives led early in the year; Tech (+19%) and Communications (+24%) dominated later on AI gains.
• 2026 forecasts:
  • Earnings growth: +7% for consumer staples; up to +24% for technology.
  • Analysts see US growth stocks retaining appeal, though volatility may rise due to policy and geopolitical risk.

Europe & UK

• European gas: Front-month TTF futures fell 40% YTD to €30.12/MWh, the lowest since April 2025, on mild-weather forecasts and optimism over Russia-Ukraine peace talks.
• Storage: EU gas storage 80.7% full (Germany 73%), below last year’s levels; durable import restrictions on Russian gas expected to stay post-2027.
• Eurozone PMIs:
  • Composite index 52.4 (–0.1); still above 50 but showing slowing momentum.
  • Germany: Manufacturing 48.4, deeper contraction; services expanding at slower pace.
  • France and southern Europe showed improvement, but Germany continues to lag, highlighting need for reforms.
• Germany (Mon): ifo Business Climate contracted slightly lower to 88.1 (prev 88.4).
• US (Tue): Conference Board confidence forecast 93.3 (prev 94.6), signaling weaker consumer sentiment.
• UK (Wed): Autumn Budget to outline potential GBP 35 bn in consolidation, possibly via higher capital-gains and property taxes; risks of delay could keep gilt and sterling volatility elevated.

Germany 40 Technical Analysis

The Germany 40 CFD (4H) chart indicates the following:

• Price Action: After the sharp decline to 23,025, price is consolidating near 23,300, signaling early stabilization.
• RSI: Current RSI is 49.06, still below neutral (50), but recovering from oversold territory, suggesting momentum is improving.
• MACD: Histogram and signal lines show a slight positive crossover, indicating early bullish divergence.
• Moving Averages:
  • 50 EMA: ~23,582
  • 200 EMA: ~23,848
    Both remain above current price, acting as dynamic resistance and confirming the broader downtrend.
• Resistance Levels:
  • Immediate: 23,380–23,400
  • Next: 23,650–23,750
    A break above 23,650 would confirm short-term reversal, targeting 23,940–24,100.
• Support Levels:
  • Primary: 23,100–23,000
  • Key floor: 22,945 (recent low).
• Trend Context: Neutral-to-bullish short-term recovery attempt; broader trend remains cautious below 23,850.

Regards,

-Philip Papageorgiou : Market Research Team

Twitter: PhilipForexCom