Forex Seasonality – March 2025: USD/JPY Bounce Potential Amidst Quieter Price Action?

March Forex Seasonality Key Points

• Most major currency pairs have seen quieter moves in March on average since 1971.
• March has historically been USD/JPY’s 3^rd strongest month since the Bretton Woods agreement, raising hopes of a bounce after February’s washout.
• The budding trade war and developments on the tariff front could well outweigh the modest historical seasonal tendencies in March.

The beginning of a new month marks a good opportunity to review the seasonal patterns that have influenced the forex market over the 50+ years since the Bretton Woods system was dismantled in 1971, ushering in the modern foreign exchange market.

As always, these seasonal tendencies are just historical averages, and any individual month or year may vary from the historic average, so it’s important to complement these seasonal leans with alternative forms of analysis to create a long-term successful trading strategy. In other words, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Euro Forex Seasonality – EUR/USD Chart

Source: TradingView, StoneX. Please note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Historically, March has been a quieter month for EUR/USD, with the world’s most widely-traded currency pair sporting an average return of effectively 0% (+0.02%) over the last 50+ years. In February, EUR/USD saw its best month in half a year, leaving it near the bottom of the 2023-2024 range, where the mid-1.0500 zone may now flip into resistance.

British Pound Forex Seasonality – GBP/USD Chart

Source: TradingView, StoneX. Please note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Looking at the above chart, GBP/USD has historically gained a bit of ground in March, with average returns of around +0.18% since 1971. The British pound also gained ground against the world’s reserve currency in February, breaking a four-month losing streak to settle back in the middle of its 2023-2024 range. The 200-day MA (currently around 1.2800) will be a key pivot point to watch this month.

Japanese Yen Forex Seasonality – USD/JPY Chart

Source: TradingView, StoneX. Please note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

March has historically been a modestly bullish month for USD/JPY, with the pair rising by an average of 0.15% since the Bretton Woods agreement, surprisingly marking the 3^rd strongest month of the year for the Pacific pair. That said, the fundamental picture is more mixed with the Bank of Japan finally starting to raise interest rates just as traders start to price in more aggressive easing from the Federal Reserve. Traders will be watching the Fibonacci retracements of the H2 2024 rally at 149.25 (50%) and 147.00 (61.8%) for a potential bounce this month.

Australian Dollar Forex Seasonality – AUD/USD Chart

Source: TradingView, StoneX. Please note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Turning our attention Down Under, AUD/USD has seen mostly flat returns in March, with an average loss of -0.06% going back to 1971. Last month, AUD/USD bounced from support at multi-year lows near 0.6170, raising bullish hopes for an extended bounce back in February; that said, a confirmed break of that support level would leave little in the way of near-term support until well below 0.6000.

Canadian Dollar Forex Seasonality – USD/CAD Chart

Source: TradingView, StoneX. Please note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Last but not least, March has been a quieter month for USD/CAD as well, with an average historical return of -0.05%. While it can be useful to understand the historical seasonal tendencies in certain environments, the North American pair faces much more significant pressure from the potential imposition of US tariffs on Canadian goods, and those headlines will likely be a bigger driver for USD/CAD this month than the (rather lackluster) seasonal trend.

As always, we want to close this article by reminding readers that seasonal tendencies are not gospel – even if they’ve tracked relatively closely so far this year – so it’s important to complement this analysis with an examination of the current fundamental and technical backdrops for the major currency pairs.

-- Written by Matt Weller, Global Head of Research

Check out Matt’s Daily Market Update videos on YouTube and be sure to follow Matt on Twitter: @MWellerFX