
US Dollar Rallies on Hawkish Fed Hike, Though Upside Could be Limited
While momentum is clearly backing bullish US dollar bets for now, I maintain my bigger picture view that it has topped for the year despite the Fed’s hawkish hike
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While momentum is clearly backing bullish US dollar bets for now, I maintain my bigger picture view that it has topped for the year despite the Fed’s hawkish hike

AUD/USD slides as surging oil, rising Treasury yields and hot US PPI revive Fed hike bets ahead of CPI.

USD/JPY slides as BOJ and Fed repricing favour the yen, while traders await confirmation of whether the MOF joined the move.

Yen shorts jumped ahead of a sharp reversal, while US dollar longs fell for a fifth week and euro shorts eased further.

USD/JPY volatility has picked up as fresh BOJ commentary puts rate hikes back in focus ahead of ISM services and US nonfarm payrolls.

DXY enters September with little directional seasonality but elevated volatility, while NFP and ISM data could test the US dollar rebound.

Nvidia earnings and Jackson Hole put Nasdaq 100 volatility in focus, with technical signals and historical returns pointing to a pivotal week.

ASX 200 volatility tends to rise after Jackson Hole, while sector correlations highlight the clearest support, resistance and leadership signals.

Jackson Hole takes centre stage as Kevin Warsh makes his Fed Chair debut, with 27 years of FX returns revealing a clear volatility pattern.

The US dollar broke support as Treasury buybacks sent long-end yields lower, dragging USD/JPY towards important downside levels.

Japanese yen weakness has returned, but renewed intervention risk and Wednesday’s US CPI report could challenge the USD/JPY recovery.

USD/JPY is attempting to stabilise after its sharpest 2-day decline in 4 years, but Fed-backed support for Japan could keep rallies on a short leash.

Euro and yen bears were caught offside after the FOMC and coordinated US-Japan intervention, while US dollar positioning reached an 11-year extreme.
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