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The EUR/USD has tagged a fresh year-to-date low as French public-finance concerns trigger a government bond sell-off. Today's US jobs report may change little, with resilient activity, elevated energy prices and hawkish Fed bets keeping the greenback supported. With the pair trapped below resistance at 1.1410, the risk to the near-term EUR/USD forecast is tilted to the downside.
Traders and economists expect the NFP report to show that the US created 90K net new jobs, with average hourly earnings rising 0.3% m/m (3.1% y/y) and the U3 unemployment rate at 4.1% - see what the leading indicators are suggesting!
The trading week is getting underway and, for now, gold has struggled to maintain the strength that characterized its performance in previous weeks. Average price action over the last two sessions shows a decline of roughly 1.5%, reflecting a loss of momentum that has started to highlight a more neutral market environment.
The NFP arrives today with the odds of a rate hike from the Fed slipping back to around 50% and correspondingly the dollar sold off again yesterday. That was due to comments from Fed’s Waller who said next week’s CPI could determine whether he votes for a hike or hold. He was thus a lot less hawkish than the Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.
Speculation about yen intervention followed a sudden drop in dollar yen, yet the selling that came after was smooth and steady rather than sharp and disorderly. Markets now carry far more Bank of Japan tightening for this year than before the late July episode. A reverse carry trade sits behind it, alongside a dollar slipping against the euro, the Australian dollar, and gold.
The last two trading sessions have been particularly important for gold's price action in the short term. XAU/USD has gained more than 3.7% during this period, once again highlighting a meaningful bullish bias around the precious metal.
DXY has broken below the 200-day moving average as selling accelerates toward major support, raising the stakes ahead of Friday’s NFP report.
NFP leading indicators point to a potentially above-expected reading in this month’s jobs report, with headline job growth coming in somewhere in the 75-125K range, with a chance the report tips the scales on the FOMC interest rate decision later this month.
US job openings remain firm, but weak hiring and fading labour-market churn point to softer conditions ahead of Friday’s NFP report.
Gold holds support at its 200-day EMA as futures positioning and options sentiment point to persistent dip-buying interest ahead of NFP.
Australian GDP growth was modest in Q2, leaving RBA hike bets intact as AUD/USD traders turn to ISM and NFP for the next catalyst.
DXY enters September with little directional seasonality but elevated volatility, while NFP and ISM data could test the US dollar rebound.
Today’s US jobs report was the first of the four major releases before the Fed’s next meeting in September. As it turned out, this was a pretty bad report and as a result, the odds of a September rate hike fell to around 44% from north of 55% before the data was released.
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