Nasdaq 100 Forecast: NDX reaches record highs, Nvidia rises

US futures                                          

Dow futures 0.85%, S&P futures 0.39%  & Nasdaq futures 0.38%

In Europe                                                                        

FTSE 0.89% & DAX 1.45%

• U.S. stocks trade near record highs
• President Trump's meeting with Xi Jinping is seen as positive.  
• Chip stocks and tech have led the recent rally
• Oil holds steady on reports of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz

US stocks rise as AI optimism offsets inflation concerns

US stocks are rising on Thursday, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 trading close to record highs as investors monitor developments from the US-China summit and await US retail sales data.

Technology stocks — particularly chipmakers — have continued to drive the rally in recent weeks, helping push major US indices to fresh highs despite ongoing concerns surrounding the Middle East conflict and elevated inflation linked to higher oil prices.

Investor optimism around AI received another boost after high-profile executives including Elon Musk and Jensen Huang joined Donald Trump’s delegation to China. Early readouts from the summit have been viewed positively by markets.

Equities have largely brushed aside hotter-than-expected inflation data, even as expectations for tighter monetary policy continue to rise. Markets are now pricing roughly a 31% probability that the Federal Reserve could raise rates by 25 basis points before year-end, up sharply from around 16% previously.

Attention now turns to US retail sales data, which is expected to show consumer spending remained resilient in April despite rising energy costs. Headline retail sales are forecast to rise 0.5% month-on-month after a strong 1.7% increase in March, while core retail sales are expected to increase 0.4%.

Even if growth moderates from March’s pace, the figures would still suggest US consumers continue to spend despite the inflationary backdrop.

Corporate movers

NVIDIA is rising around 1.8% premarket after reports that Washington approved roughly 10 Chinese companies to purchase the H200 AI chip, NVIDIA’s second-most powerful processor.

Companies reportedly approved include Alibaba Group, Tencent and JD.com.

The development has fuelled optimism that the Trump–Xi summit could help ease restrictions around AI-related trade with China.

Cisco Systems is surging 18% after announcing a restructuring plan that includes around 4,000 job cuts, representing roughly 5% of its workforce.The company expects a $1 billion charge linked to severance and restructuring costs but also forecast fiscal Q4 revenue growth of 14.5% year-on-year — well above Wall Street expectations. Cisco said AI-related demand remains strong and is expected to continue accelerating.

Nasdaq 100 – Technical analysis

The Nasdaq 100 has extended its rebound from the 22,800 low, climbing to a fresh record high near 29,580 before easing back slightly towards 29,445.

The RSI remains deeply overbought, suggesting the index may be vulnerable to consolidation or a near-term pullback.

Buyers will look for a move above 29,580 to open the door towards the key psychological 30,000 level.

Initial support is seen around 29,000 near rising trendline support. Below there, the 20-day SMA near 27,660 comes into focus.

A decline below 26,200 — the February and 2025 high — would be needed to materially weaken the broader bullish trend.

FX markets – US dollar firms

The US dollar is rising for a third straight session as markets increase expectations for a Fed rate hike later this year following stronger-than-expected inflation data.

Treasury yields have climbed to their highest levels since mid-2025, supporting the dollar.

EUR/USD is edging lower amid broad dollar strength and a relatively quiet eurozone calendar. Martins Kazaks reiterated that the European Central Bank would continue to take a meeting-by-meeting approach based on incoming data.

GBP/USD is struggling near 1.25 as stronger UK GDP data is offset by political uncertainty in Westminster.

The UK economy expanded 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in Q1, accelerating from 0.2% growth previously, while March GDP unexpectedly rose 0.3%.

However, investors increasingly believe Q1 could represent the strongest period of growth this year before the full impact of elevated energy prices and inflation feeds through to the economy.

Meanwhile, Keir Starmer remains under pressure amid ongoing speculation surrounding a possible leadership challenge involving Health Secretary Wes Streeting.

Oil steadies as Strait of Hormuz stays in focus

Oil prices are little changed on Thursday after paring earlier gains following reports from Iranian state media that around 30 vessels had crossed the Strait of Hormuz.

At the same time, Trump and Xi Jinping reportedly agreed during talks that the Strait must remain open to preserve the free flow of global energy supplies.

Crude prices had weakened on Wednesday amid concerns that tighter US monetary policy could eventually weigh on demand.

Even so, supply concerns remain elevated. The International Energy Agency continues to warn that global oil supply is likely to remain well below demand this year as inventories are drawn down rapidly following disruption linked to the Strait closure.

Current estimates suggest global oil markets remain roughly one billion barrels short since the conflict began.