S&P 500 Outlook: Sink or swim moment near record highs
S&P 500 futures remain locked in compression beneath the record highs as buyers probe overhead resistance. The next move may prove decisive for near-term direction.
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- Retest of downtrend resistance in focus
- 7000 remains “death zone” for rallies
- Break below 6752 invalidates bullish bias
Having been capped beneath the 50DMA for over a week, S&P 500 futures broke and closed above the level on Wednesday. The move, unfolding within a coiling triangle structure, puts a potential bullish breakout and retest of the record highs back in focus.
Source: TradingView
With volumes continuing to fade, it reinforces the importance of waiting for the move to occur rather than attempting to pre-empt it. However, for those with less patience, a retest and bounce from the 50DMA may offer an alternative entry point for longs. Either way, stops should be placed beneath the chosen level to protect against reversal.
A clean break above downtrend resistance would shift attention back towards the record highs, with price action above 7000 looming as critical. Repeated probes above this region have seen futures close well off session highs, highlighting lingering hesitation. A bullish close above the highs, or preferably a decisive break above them on stronger volumes, would add to confidence that the broader uptrend is resuming. In that scenario, 7043 stands out as a natural target or reassessment zone for longs.
A move back beneath the 50DMA would question the mildly bullish bias, bringing the February uptrend into view on the downside. A clean break beneath that level would increase the risk of a deeper unwind, especially if accompanied by a break of 6752. If that were to occur, it would put downside levels such as the 200DMA and horizontal support at 6542 in play.
Momentum signals remain more neutral than bullish in the near term. RSI (14) has edged back above 50, but only marginally. MACD remains in negative territory, though the recent crossover of the signal line hints downside pressure may be starting to ease.
With Nvidia shares unable to hold earlier gains in after-hours trade, their performance as volumes lift into the North American session may help determine whether breakout prospects sink or swim.
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S&P 500 Forecast: SPX Continues to Drift Away from Record Highs
Recent trading sessions have done little to restore confidence in the equity market. Over the last four sessions, the S&P 500 has declined by nearly 1.00%, a move that highlights growing short-term weakness and keeps the index moving further away from its record-high territory.
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