S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Forecast for the Week Ahead
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are trading at fresh record highs with the Dow holding below the January extremes. Battle lines drawn on the weekly technical charts ahead of CPI.
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Equities Technical Forecast: Weekly Trade Levels
- S&P 500 registers fresh record high- monthly opening range set at 6180-6288
- Nasdaq registers fresh record high- monthly opening range set at 22388-22915
- Dow holds resistance at yearly range high- monthly opening-range set at 44013-44885
- Battle lines drawn on the SPX, NDX, and DJI weekly technical charts
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S&P 500 Price Chart – SPX500 Weekly
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; S&P 500 on TradingView
Technical Outlook: The S&P 500 closed a third consecutive weekly advance on Friday to mark a fresh record high-close. The index has now rallied more than 31% off the April lows and while the advance has far surpassed the 2011 price parallel we’ve been tracking for months now, the patterns does highlight the potential for exhaustion in the weeks ahead. Initial resistance now in view at the 200% extension of the 2022 advance at 6344- the immediate focus is on a reaction into this zone IF reached.
S&P 500 Price Chart – SPX500 Daily
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; S&P 500 on TradingView
A closer look at the daily chart shows the S&P 500 trading within the confines of an ascending channel extending of the late-April lows with the lower parallel highlighting near-term support a the objective monthly open at 6198. The technical outlook remains constructive while above 6130/40- a region defined by the 100% extension of the 2020 advance, the 2025 yearly opening-range highs, and the February high-day close. Subsequent support objectives rest at the February high-week close at 6140 and the 200-day moving average / yearly open at 5870/82.
A topside breach / close above 6344 exposes the highlighted trendline confluence near ~6430s- look for a larger reaction there IF reached with close above needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance towards 6600 and the 1.382% extension of the yearly range break at 6665.
Bottom line: The S&P 500 continues to trade within the confines of the objective July opening-range, and the immediate focus is on the breakout. From at trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 6130 IF the index is heading higher on this stretch with a close above the monthly range high needed to fuel a test of 6344.
Nasdaq Price Chart – NDX Weekly
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; NDX on TradingView
Technical Outlook: Nasdaq closed a third weekly advance with the April rally now within striking distance of Fibonacci resistance at the 1.618% extension of the 2022 advance at 22943. The July opening-range is preserved just above below this threshold heading into next week - looking for a breakout. A topside breach exposes subsequent objectives at the 2.236% extension of the April rally at 23612 with critical resistance eyed at 24640-25041.
Initial support rests with the objective monthly open at 22594 with a break below 2024 high at 22133 needed to suggest a more significant pullback is underway. Broader bullish invalidation rests with yearly open / 2024 high-week close (HWC) at 21120/289.
Bottom line: Nasdaq is trading into Fibonacci resistance with the monthly opening-range preserved just below. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 22133 IF price is heading for a breakout on this stretch with a close above 22943 needed to fuel the next leg higher.
Dow Jones Price Chart – DJI Weekly
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; DJI on TradingView
Technical Outlook: The Dow Jones Industrial Average snapped a two-week winning streak on Friday with DJI turning just ahead of key resistance at the 2024 record high-close / record high at 44910-45071. Note that the index has not broken the yearly opening-range highs like its’ counterparts and as such the April advance remains vulnerable while below this key pivot zone.
A topside breach / weekly close above exposes former channel support, now resistance (currently near 46000) and the 100% extension of the 2020 advance at 47400- look for a larger reaction there IF reached. Initial support rests along the median-line (currently near ~440 00) and is backed by the 52-week moving average / 2025 yearly open at 42335/660. Key support / bullish invalidation now raised to the July 2024 high at 40212.
Bottom line: The Dow rally exhausted into the record highs with the July opening-rang range preserved just below- look for the breakout. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to the median-line IF the index is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 44910 needed fuel the next leg higher in price.
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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com
Follow Michael on X @MBForex
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