S&P 500 Forecast: SPX falls ahead of Trump's "Liberation Day" trade tariffs

US futures

Dow future -0.70% at 41661

S&P futures -1% at 5573

Nasdaq futures -1.3% at 19179

In Europe

FTSE -0.6% at 8575

Dax  -1.42% at 22191

• The mood sours ahead of Trump’s tariffs
• Trump will unveil tariff plans at 20:00 GMT
• Tesla falls ahead of deliveries data
• Oil is unchanged with tariffs in focus

The mood sours ahead of the trade tariff announcement

US stocks are pointing to a weak open as investors sell out of risk assets ahead of Trump's tariff announcements later today.

Details of Trump's Liberation Day trade tariffs will be announced at 20:00 GMT. Details have been few and far between, meaning investors are flying blind into the announcement unnerving the market. The uncertainty surrounding tariffs has resulted in investors continuing to sell out of US stocks after losses across the first quarter.

The S&P 500 declined 5% across Q1, marking its worst Q1 performance since 2022. However, its performance against the rest of the world was its worst since the 1980s as investors rotated out of US stocks.

Tech stocks have been at the forefront of the sell-off and are dropping further ahead of the open as investors fret that Trump’s tariffs will slow economic growth and lift price pressures.

All data from US private payrolls rose by 155,000 in March, surpassing the 105,000 forecast and significantly up from 77,000 in February. This shows hiring accelerating, which is a good outcome despite the policy uncertainty and downbeat consumer. The demand for workers appears to be holding steady. Attention will now turn to the US non-farm payroll report on Friday.

Corporate news

Tesla is falling ahead of the release of Q1 deliveries. Expectations are for 377,592 EV deliveries, down slightly from 386,810 in the same period a year earlier.

Meta is falling 1% after the U.S. Senate investigative subcommittee opened a review into Meta’s efforts to gain entry into China. The senators are requesting documentation, including records of communication between Mata and Chinese government officials.

S&P 500 forecast – technical analysis.

The S&P 500 failed to rise above the 200 SMA, rebounding lower before finding support below 5500. The price has experienced choppy trade. The long lower wick on Monday’s candle suggests that there was little selling demand at the lower level. Sellers would need to close below 5500 to extend the bearish trend. Any recovery would need to retake the 200 SMA at 5770 for buyers to take control and form a higher high.

FX markets – USD falls, GBP/USD rises 

The USD is falling as nerves start to show ahead of Trump’s announcement. The USD fell sharply across March, its worst monthly decline since November 2022, amid fears of the impact of Trump’s trade tariffs on growth.

The EUR/USD is rising modestly, with all eyes on Trump’s trade tariff announcements. Aggressive tariffs against the European Union could raise concerns over the growth outlook. This could mean that the pair struggles to push much higher.

The GBP/USD is rising amid a weaker U.S. dollar despite the UK being unlikely to secure an exemption from trump trade tariffs immediately. Still, the government hopes for a swift resolution through a trade deal. The pound is supported by expectations that the Bank of England may be slow to cut rates this year.

Oil steady despite uncertainties.

Oil prices are holding relatively steady for a second consecutive day despite continued macroeconomic uncertainty. Geopolitical tensions, along with tariff-related uncertainty, are in focus.

On the one hand, Trump's threat to impose secondary tariffs on Russia could limit supply, potentially impacting the market. On the other hand, Trump's tariffs against its major trading partners could slow economic growth, reducing the demand outlook

Investors will be looking towards the OPEC+ meeting on Thursday where members are expected to bring background reproduction cuts.