S&P500 Forecast: SPX muted as trade worries ease & ahead of Amazon earnings

US futures

Dow future 0.11% at 44922

S&P futures 0.21% at 6073

Nasdaq futures 0.00% at 21654

In Europe

FTSE 1.5% at 8756

Dax  0.09% at 21751

• China-US trade worries fade – data & earnings are in focus
• US jobless claims rise ahead of Friday’s NFP report
• Amazon to report after the close
• Oil steadies as Saudi Aramco raises crude price

Trade war worries fade – data & earnings in focus

US stocks enter a muted open as investors' focus shifts back to earnings and US data as trade war fears subside.

Despite Trump's recent tariff announcements, the pause on Mexican and Canadian tariffs and Beijing's measured retaliation to levies on Chinese imports have helped market sentiment improve. However, Federal Reserve officials remain cautious about the potential inflationary impact of these policies.

Investors appeared to view the tariff dispute as a short-term disruption rather than a fundamental threat. Attention is turning to Friday's nonfarm payroll report for a clearer picture of the health of the US labour market. Expectations are for 175,000 new jobs to be added, while unemployment is set to hold steady at 4.1%.

Ahead of this release, investors are monitoring weekly jobless claims, which were weaker than expected at 219K, up from 208 K. Meanwhile, challenger job layoffs rose to 49,795. This is an increase of 28% from the previous month but a decline of 40% from a year earlier.

Other jobs data this week has also been mixed, with ADP payrolls coming in stronger than expected while Jolts job openings unexpectedly fell to 7.6 million. Signs of weakness seeping through the labour market could raise Fed rate cut expectations, helping to lift stocks higher.

Corporate earnings remain a central focus, with Amazon reporting after the close.

Corporate news

Amazon is due to report Q4 earnings after the close, which comes following a mixed bag from its big tech peers and after the market shake-up following the Chinese DeepSeek’s AI unveiling last week. Amazon's cloud rivals Microsoft and Google missed on expectations for cloud sales, blaming a lack of capacity to meet demand. Amazon is the world's largest cloud provider and is investing in building out its AI infrastructure to meet demand. Q4 EPS is expected at $1.5 on revenue of $187.3 billion up from EPS of $1 on revenue of $69.9 billion in the same period a year earlier. The stock trades around its all-time high.

Ford is set to open 3.5% lower after the automaker forecasted weaker profits at a time when potential tariffs on Canada and Mexico continue to fuel uncertainty.

Qualcomm is dropping 4% premarket after the semiconductor company forecasts no revenue growth for its patent licensing business after this year when its license with UAE expires.

Holding is set to fool 3.7% after the chip designer's earnings outlook for the current quarter was in line with expectations. This poured cold water on hopes that AI demand would spur outsize sales.

Eli Lilly is set to open higher after the drug maker recorded a surge in Q4 revenue thanks in part to a spike in demand for its obesity treatment zepbound.

S&P 500 forecast – technical analysis.

The S&P 500 continues to hold above the 50 SMA, and long lower wicks on recent candles suggest weak selling demand at the lower levels, which could keep buyers hopeful of further gains. Should the 50 SMA hold, buyers will look toward 6100 and 6130 for fresh record highs. However, should sellers take out the 50 SMA, a retest of 5915 could be onn the cards. It would take a break below here to create a lower low.

FX markets – USD rises, GBP/USD falls

USD is rebounding after weakness at the start of the week after Trump said he is no longer targeting the Federal Reserve but the US 10-year treasury yield.

EUR/USD is falling amid a stronger US dollar and as the market weighs up mixed data. While German factory orders jumped 6.9% MoM, Eurozone retail sales slid -0.3% MoM, marking the third straight month of no growth.

GBP/USD is falling against major peers after the Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.5%, in line with expectations. The vote had a dovish twist, with two members voting to cut rates by a larger 50 basis points. Inflation is expected to increase this year to a peak of 3.7% before returning to the 2% target, however. He said the central banks expect to be able to cut rates further. The market is pricing in three more rate cuts this year.

Oil steady as Saudi Aramco lifts March crude prices

Oil prices are inching higher after losing around 3% in the past two days. The prices ticked higher after Saudi Arabia's state oil company lifted its March crude prices sharply. However, the upside remains limited given the ongoing uncertainties surrounding a new round of US sign-out trade tariffs, including on energy products.

Oil prices are down around 10% since mid-January as investors weigh up the impact of Trump's new energy policies, includimg increased oil production and tariff measures.