The stats are working against bitcoin bulls today
Bitcoin futures followed their seasonal tendency to rally on Thanksgiving Day. And pattern is to hold true today, it could be set for a down day as we veer into the weekend.
Share this:
Bitcoin futures followed their seasonal tendency to rally on Thanksgiving Day. And pattern is to hold true today, it could be set for a down day as we veer into the weekend.
Since inception, bitcoin futures have:
- Posted negative average returns of just under -1% on the Friday following Thanksgiving (TG)
- Closed lower on Friday, four of the past five years (-5.9% average negative return, -24% total return)
- Seen the second highest daily range of the three days either side of TG (9.6% average 10.9% median)
It is a shame the stats are so bearish for Bitcoin today, because the price action appears bullish. But perhaps both camps can enjoy some of the action.
Bitcoin technical analysis:
Bitcoin saw a breakout from a multi-month bull flag earlier this month, and remains on track to eventually reach my 124k target. Yet there is a bit of a shakeout around the 100k, a level early bitcoin enthusiasts were foaming at the mouth about years ago. As solid as the bullish trend is, I do not think this shakeout is done just yet.
While bitcoin aligned with its seasonal tendency to rise on the day of Thanksgiving, the bullish candle failed to recoup losses of the prior two days or retest $100k. The daily RSI is pointing lower after spending some time in the overbought zone, so perhaps a pullback to the 87,950 low / 90k handle at a minimum could be on the cards.
The 4-hour chart shows a potential bull flag, after posting a strong rally from the monthly R3 pivot. Perhaps this could prompt bulls to have another crack at $100k. However, given the price action clues on the daily char, my preference would be to seek shorts around the high-volume node (HVN) at 99,210 or the 100k level itself, in anticipation of its next leg lower. And given the stats are working against bulls today, any such bounce could also be ‘short’ lived.
How to trade with City Index
You can easily trade with City Index by using these four easy steps:
- Open an account, or log in if you’re already a customer
• Open an account in the UK
• Open an account in Australia
• Open an account in Singapore
- Search for the company you want to trade in our award-winning platform
- Choose your position and size, and your stop and limit levels
- Place the trade
How to trade with FOREX.com
Follow these easy steps to start trading with FOREX.com today:
- Open a Forex.com account, or log in if you’re already a customer.
- Search for the pair you want to trade in our award-winning platform.
- Choose your position and size, and your stop and limit levels.
- Place the trade.
Related tags:
Open an account in minutes
Experience award-winning platforms with fast and secure execution, and enjoy tight spreads from 0.5 pts on FX and 0.3 pts on indices.
Economic calendar
Web Trader platform
Our sophisticated web-based platform is packed with features.
Related articles
Oil Quietly Hands the Fed a Reason to Stay Hawkish
Oil prices and the U.S. dollar are both on the front foot as elevated energy costs feed Fed warnings that inflation may prove sticky.
S&P 500 forecast: Stocks extend drop as correction risks grow
US and global equity markets have extended Wednesday’s sell-off, with Wall Street opening lower after a weak handover from Asia and Europe. The deterioration in risk appetite has been spreading across global markets. The dollar was firmer, Treasury yields were holding onto yesterday’s gains, while gold, silver and bitcoin were all under pressure alongside equities and major currencies.
Gold forecast: XAU/USD could take a larger dive after the big rise in yields
Gold prices have been falling in the last few days after last week’s post-FOMC pop faded amid rising interest rate expectations, higher oil prices and a strengthening US dollar. As before, I wasn’t convinced gold would thrive in the current macro backdrop.
This report is intended for general circulation only. It should not be construed as a recommendation, or an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any financial products. The information provided does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Before you act on any recommendation that may be contained in this report, independent advice ought to be sought from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd., may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities or affiliates within the StoneX group of companies or third parties pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed to a person in Singapore who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or an institutional investor (as defined in the Securities Futures Act), StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. accepts legal responsibility to such persons for the contents of the report only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. at 6826 9988 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.
In the case of all other recipients of this report, to the extent permitted by applicable laws and regulations neither StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. nor its associated companies will be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information contained in this report and all such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the content of this report is complete or accurate.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. is not under any obligation to update this report.
Trading CFDs carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for some investors. Consider your investment objectives, level of experience, financial resources, risk appetite and other relevant circumstances carefully. The possibility exists that you could lose some or all of your investments, including your initial deposits. If in doubt, please seek independent expert advice. Visit www.forex.com/en-sg/terms-and-policies for the complete Risk Disclosure Statement.