UK data dumped GBP weaker
The bullish US Dollar over the past few days hasn’t helped GBP/USD either.
Share this:
Earlier in the week, we discussed the upcoming data releases for the UK. The data has been released and the GBP/USD is not taking it so well. The Claimant Count Change for February was +86,600 was -17,000 expected. In addition, today’s CPI data was worse than expected, with headline CPI for February (MoM) of 0.1% vs 0.5% expected. That left the YoY rate at 0.4% vs and expectation of 0.8% and a previous reading of 0.7%! The core inflation rate (MoM) was just as bad, coming in a 0% vs 0.5% expected! The only bright spot the PMI data. Both Manufacturing and Services PMIs were much stronger than expected, resulting in a composite print of 56.6 for February vs 51.1 expected and 49.6 last! However, although GBP/USD bounced after the PMIs, the employment and inflation data seems to be overshadowing the PMI data, as the pair remains weak.
Have a look at some of the more common economic indicators
GBP/USD had been rangebound between 1.3800 and 1.4000. We speculated that the next direction in the pair could be dependent on the data. The weaker employment pushed GBP/USD below 1.3800 and the ensuing CPI data helped the pair move to 1.3670 before bouncing. Just below is horizontal support near 1.3650.
Source: Tradingview, City Index
On a daily timeframe, note that GBP/USD broke below confluence of support, below the upward sloping bottom trendline and horizontal support. The next level of support is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from the September 23, 2020 lows to the February 24th highs near 1.3636. Below there is horizontal support near 1.3556 and the 50% retracement level from the same timeframe near 1.3450. Resistance is at the previous confluence breakdown near 1.3756, the March 5th lows near 1.3778, and a series of horizontal resistance levels between 1.3800 and 1.4000.
Source: Tradingview, City Index
The bullish US Dollar over the past few days hasn’t helped GBP/USD either. The DXY moved from roughly 91.80 to 92.60 over the same time period.
If the US Dollar continues to rise, comments for BOE officials remain dovish, or poor inflation and employment data continue to come out of the UK, GBP/USD may have more room to go on the downside.
Learn more about forex trading opportunities.
Earlier in the week, we discussed the upcoming data releases for the UK. The data has been released and the GBP/USD is not taking it so well. The Claimant Count Change for February was +86,600 was -17,000 expected. In addition, today’s CPI data was worse than expected, with headline CPI for February (MoM) of 0.1% vs 0.5% expected. That left the YoY rate at 0.4% vs and expectation of 0.8% and a previous reading of 0.7%! The core inflation rate (MoM) was just as bad, coming in a 0% vs 0.5% expected! The only bright spot the PMI data. Both Manufacturing and Services PMIs were much stronger than expected, resulting in a composite print of 56.6 for February vs 51.1 expected and 49.6 last! However, although GBP/USD bounced after the PMIs, the employment and inflation data seems to be overshadowing the PMI data, as the pair remains weak.
GBP/USD had been rangebound between 1.3800 and 1.4000. We speculated that the next direction in the pair could be dependent on the data. The weaker employment pushed GBP/USD below 1.3800 and the ensuing CPI data helped the pair move to 1.3670 before bouncing. Just below is horizontal support near 1.3650.
Source: Tradingview, FOREX.com
On a daily timeframe, note that GBP/USD broke below confluence of support, below the upward sloping bottom trendline and horizontal support. The next level of support is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from the September 23, 2020 lows to the February 24th highs near 1.3636. Below there is horizontal support near 1.3556 and the 50% retracement level from the same timeframe near 1.3450. Resistance is at the previous confluence breakdown near 1.3756, the March 5th lows near 1.3778, and a series of horizontal resistance levels between 1.3800 and 1.4000.
Source: Tradingview, FOREX.com
The bullish US Dollar over the past few days hasn’t helped GBP/USD either. The DXY moved from roughly 91.80 to 92.60 over the same time period.
If the US Dollar continues to rise, comments for BOE officials remain dovish, or poor inflation and employment data continue to come out of the UK, GBP/USD may have more room to go on the downside.
Learn more about forex trading opportunities.
Related tags:
Latest market news
Open an account in minutes
Experience award-winning platforms with fast and secure execution, and enjoy tight spreads from 0.5 pts on FX and 0.3 pts on indices.
Economic calendar
Web Trader platform
Our sophisticated web-based platform is packed with features.
Related articles
Gold Q4 2026 outlook: Resilience in the face of rallying dollar and yields
As we headed towards the latter stages of Q3 and into Q4, the Fed had just hiked rates in a hawkish FOMC meeting, while the likes of the ECB and BoJ had also tightened their respective policies. Oil prices remained elevated amid the prolonged US-Iran conflict. Meanwhile, bond yields were breaking out, and the dollar was higher across the board. Yet, remarkably, gold was still holding in the positive territory for the third quarter, even if it had weakened somewhat in September.
EUR/USD Q4 2026 Outlook: Euro at a Crossroads as Fed, ECB Tighten 9 25 2026
EUR/USD enters Q4 at a pivotal inflection point as competing Fed-ECB policy paths and persistent inflation risks collide with major technical support.
AUD/USD Q4 Outlook: RBA and Fed Hikes Set the Tone
AUD/USD enters Q4 with RBA and Fed hikes in focus as sticky inflation, rising unemployment and US dollar strength shape the Australian dollar.
This report is intended for general circulation only. It should not be construed as a recommendation, or an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any financial products. The information provided does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Before you act on any recommendation that may be contained in this report, independent advice ought to be sought from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd., may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities or affiliates within the StoneX group of companies or third parties pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed to a person in Singapore who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or an institutional investor (as defined in the Securities Futures Act), StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. accepts legal responsibility to such persons for the contents of the report only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. at 6826 9988 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.
In the case of all other recipients of this report, to the extent permitted by applicable laws and regulations neither StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. nor its associated companies will be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information contained in this report and all such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the content of this report is complete or accurate.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. is not under any obligation to update this report.
Trading CFDs carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for some investors. Consider your investment objectives, level of experience, financial resources, risk appetite and other relevant circumstances carefully. The possibility exists that you could lose some or all of your investments, including your initial deposits. If in doubt, please seek independent expert advice. Visit www.forex.com/en-sg/terms-and-policies for the complete Risk Disclosure Statement.