US Non Farm Payrolls (NFP) Report Preview (JUL 2025)
Looking ahead, the US is expected to add 110K jobs in July, while the Unemployment Rate is projected to increase to 4.2% from 4.1% during the same period.
Share this:
US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)
The US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report showed a 147K rise in June amid forecasts for a 110K print, while Average Hourly Earnings unexpectedly narrowed to 3.7% from 3.8% during the same period.
US Economic Calendar – July 3
A deeper look at the report showed the Unemployment Rate printing at 4.1% versus forecast for a 4.3% reading even as the Labor Force Participation Rate narrowed to 62.3% from 62.4% in May.
At the same time, the update from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed that ‘job gains occurred in state government and health care,’ with the report going onto say that ‘the change in total nonfarm payroll employment for April was revised up by 11,000, from +147,000 to +158,000, and the change for May was revised up by 5,000, from +139,000 to +144,000.’
Join David Song for the Weekly Fundamental Market Outlook webinar. David provides a market overview and takes questions in real-time. Register Here
EUR/USD Chart – 15 Minute
Chart Prepared by David Song, Senior Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView
The better-than-expected NFP print led to a bullish reaction in the US Dollar, with EUR/USD slipping to a fresh session low (1.1718), but the market reaction was short lived as the exchange rate closed at 1.1757. Nevertheless, the weakness in EUR/USD carried into the days ahead as the exchange rate closed the following week at 1.1690.
Looking ahead, the US is expected to add 110K jobs in July, while the Unemployment Rate is projected to increase to 4.2% from 4.1% during the same period.
With that said, a further expansion in employment may lead to a bullish reaction in the US Dollar as it raises the Federal Reserve’s scope to further combat inflation, but a weaker-than-expected NFP report may drag on the Greenback as it puts pressure on the central bank to pursue lower interest rates.
Additional Market Outlooks
USD/CHF Trades Above 50 Day SMA for First Time Since February
USD/JPY Fails to Test July High Ahead of Fed Rate Decision
British Pound Forecast: GBP/USD Falls to Fresh Monthly Low
AUD/USD Fails to Test November High Ahead of Australia CPI
--- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist
Follow on Twitter at @DavidJSong
Related tags:
Latest market news
Open an account in minutes
Experience award-winning platforms with fast and secure execution, and enjoy tight spreads from 0.5 pts on FX and 0.3 pts on indices.
Economic calendar
Web Trader platform
Our sophisticated web-based platform is packed with features.
Related articles
Gold Update: XAU/USD Shows Neutrality Following Friday's NFP Report
The trading week is getting underway and, for now, gold has struggled to maintain the strength that characterized its performance in previous weeks. Average price action over the last two sessions shows a decline of roughly 1.5%, reflecting a loss of momentum that has started to highlight a more neutral market environment.
USD/JPY forecast: All eyes on US jobs with CPI next week – FOREX Friday
The NFP arrives today with the odds of a rate hike from the Fed slipping back to around 50% and correspondingly the dollar sold off again yesterday. That was due to comments from Fed’s Waller who said next week’s CPI could determine whether he votes for a hike or hold. He was thus a lot less hawkish than the Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.
Yen Shock Hits the Dollar Just Before the U.S. Jobs Report
Speculation about yen intervention followed a sudden drop in dollar yen, yet the selling that came after was smooth and steady rather than sharp and disorderly. Markets now carry far more Bank of Japan tightening for this year than before the late July episode. A reverse carry trade sits behind it, alongside a dollar slipping against the euro, the Australian dollar, and gold.
This report is intended for general circulation only. It should not be construed as a recommendation, or an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any financial products. The information provided does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Before you act on any recommendation that may be contained in this report, independent advice ought to be sought from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd., may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities or affiliates within the StoneX group of companies or third parties pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed to a person in Singapore who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or an institutional investor (as defined in the Securities Futures Act), StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. accepts legal responsibility to such persons for the contents of the report only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. at 6826 9988 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.
In the case of all other recipients of this report, to the extent permitted by applicable laws and regulations neither StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. nor its associated companies will be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information contained in this report and all such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the content of this report is complete or accurate.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. is not under any obligation to update this report.
Trading CFDs carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for some investors. Consider your investment objectives, level of experience, financial resources, risk appetite and other relevant circumstances carefully. The possibility exists that you could lose some or all of your investments, including your initial deposits. If in doubt, please seek independent expert advice. Visit www.forex.com/en-sg/terms-and-policies for the complete Risk Disclosure Statement.