Nvidia shares have plunged over 30% from their October high, yet signs of selling exhaustion are emerging near major support. With the Nasdaq 100 already rebounding and AI demand remaining strong, could Nvidia's upcoming earnings provide the next catalyst for bulls?
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Nvidia Sell-Off Deepens as AI Spending Comes Under Scrutiny
Nvidia’s share price has fallen over 30% from its October high, with bearish momentum accelerating last Thursday and prices gapping lower again on Monday. Recent headlines surrounding Jensen Huang’s infidelity and allegations of a Chinese intelligence operation have certainly not helped. Nvidia’s board has launched an independent investigation, although it says there is no reason to believe company secrets were compromised and continues to back its CEO.
AI stocks have faced mounting pressure over concerns about excessive spending, rising borrowing costs and returns on data-centre investments. Hotter US inflation and SoftBank’s surprise ¥1.12 trillion quarterly loss have added to the uncertainty.
Yet CoreWeave’s latest earnings suggest AI demand remains strong, with revenue surging 168% and its backlog reaching $132.5 billion.
AI Semiconductor Stocks Show Widening Performance Divergence
The divergence across semiconductor stocks is also striking. AMD has surged over 130% this year, while ASML and TSMC have gained around 36% and 31%, respectively, comfortably outperforming the Nasdaq 100’s 8% rise. In contrast, Nvidia has fallen nearly 9% and Broadcom is down over 18%.
This suggests investors are becoming increasingly selective about their AI exposure rather than abandoning the sector altogether. And with Nvidia approaching major support ahead of earnings, a strong result could help restore confidence in one of the AI trade’s biggest names.
Nvidia Shares Stall Above Major Support as Selling Pressure Eases
The daily chart shows Nvidia’s decline has stalled just above the September 2025 low. The question now is whether any bulls lay in wait to help it recover over the near term.
Note the strong volumes over the past two days which initially suggests bears retained full control, though there are subtle clues that bears may be losing their grip. Tuesday’s range was relative small compared to the size of its own volume bar, and net-delta volume shows buyers and sellers were more or less even. The 1-day cumulative delta was only marginally negative, while the 1-mohth hinted at potential low heading into the week.
And with support nearby after such a strong selloff and CoreWeave delivering an earnings beat, a bounce may well be on the cards.
Source: NASDAQ, TradingView
Nvidia reports earnings on 17 November, with analysts expecting revenue to surge 91% to $108.8 billion and EPS of $2.47. Expectations are clearly high, so strong forward guidance may be needed to convince investors that the AI investment boom still has further to run.
Nasdaq 100 Rebounds Despite Nvidia's Continued Weakness
Perhaps most encouraging for bulls is that the Nasdaq 100 has already shown signs of recovery, despite Nvidia continuing to fall. The index rallied 3.4% on Monday while Nvidia shed another 4.3%, suggesting the broader technology sector is finding buyers even as its most influential AI stock remains under pressure.
The weekly chart shows the RSI rising back above 40 – a level some consider the oversold zone during an uptrend. Also note that the recent sell-off has found support around the October high, while the daily chart shows a mini V-bottom.
That is not to say the Nasdaq is destined for an imminent record high, but it may have the potential to at least head towards 29k – with a positive earnings surprise from Nvidia next week potentially fuelling the next leg higher.
Bears now need a clear break below the October high before assuming they have fully regained control.
Source: CME, TradingView
