USD/JPY outlook hinges on continued US interest rate recalibration
The Japanese yen continues to dance to the tune of US interest rate expectations and broader risk sentiment, meaning events that may influence either of those areas should be the focus for USD/JPY traders this week.
USD/JPY analysis: Forex Friday – February 23, 2024
The US dollar remains fundamentally supported, especially against lower-yielding JPY, although it has not been doing so great lately against other major currencies thanks to the positive risk appetite, with US equity markets surging to record highs. The week ahead features the RBNZ rate decision, as well as US GDP and Core PCE among other highlights.
Japanese Yen Intervention Watch: USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY Technical Analysis
USD/JPY is consolidating while EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY remain in healthy uptrends.
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If USD/CNH is the canary in the coalmine, USD/JPY might be in trouble
A bearish reversal pattern has formed on USD/CNH which implies a move down to 7.10. And if the yuan continues to strengthen, it could see the yen follow and scupper USD/JPY attempt at breaking 152.
USD/JPY, USD/CNH uptrends under threat as dollar rally splutters
The US dollar rally since the start of the year is showing signs of fatigue, unable to build upon gains last week despite widening yield differential between the United States and other major nations, including in Asia.
JPY futures near sentiment extreme, USD set to retrace? COT report
With the USD showing signs of a potential pullbacks and JPY futures nearing a potential sentiment extreme, USD/JPY may well struggle to break and hold above 152. EUR/USD also looks set to bounce despite lower net-long exposure, and gold future may struggle to hold above $2000 given the rise in short and trimming of long bets.
USD/JPY reclaims 150 as US yields push higher into producer price inflation report
Look no further than relative central bank interest rate expectations if you’re wondering what’s driving USD/JPY right now. The pair is moving in lockstep with US two-year Treasury note yields, running with a positive correlation of 0.96 on the daily over the past month.
USD/JPY analysis: US dollar rally not over yet
Rising US import costs is inflationary, which is bad news for lower yielding currencies like JPY, even if the dollar has reacted negatively to news of retail sales missing the mark. The dollar bulls will not be too concerned yet.
USD/JPY forms bull flag above 150, Nasdaq ‘rebound’ tied to yields
The Nasdaq may have risen on Wednesday, but it appears driven by a pullback in yields. And if yields rally from a key level of support, it could propel USD/JPY higher and weigh on the Nasdaq.
U.S. Dollar Price Action Webinar: DXY, Gold, Bitcoin, FX Majors
The U.S. Dollar set another fresh high yesterday, extending the bullish structure that’s priced in so far this year.
USD/JPY breaks 150 as bulls eye 152, AUD/USD seems on track for 64c
US inflation data was broadly higher than expected, which triggered well defined moves in favour of the US dollar and to the detriment of all else. Whilst USD/JPY and AUD/USD could retrace from their overextended moves seen on Tuesday, 152 and 64c seem like viable targets for them respectively.
U.S. Dollar Post-CPI: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, XAU/USD (Gold)
The U.S. Dollar broke out and set another fresh 2024 high this morning as the currency continues to claw back Q4 losses.
EUR/USD falters at 1.08 on CPI-eve, USD/JPY remains buoyant: Asian Open
EUR/USD snapped a 4-day winning Streak around a key resistance zone, and USD/JPY traded less than 50-pips from 150 ahead of a key YS CPI report.
US CPI Preview: USD/JPY Tests 2024 Highs, Tame Inflation Expected
US CPI may be quiet this month, but the recent surge in the “Prices” component of the ISM PMI surveys hints that inflation could reaccelerate this Spring.
US bond yields threatening to break higher in blow to soft landing beneficiaries
US two-year Treasury yields are at risk of breaking back into the higher range they traded in prior to the Federal Reserve’s policy pivot last year, creating opportunities in markets sensitive to shifts in US rate expectations such as Australia’s ASX 200, USD/JPY and gold.
Japanese Yen Technical Forecast: USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY
Yen weakness has come rushing back in early-2024 trade, but U.S. and U.K. CPI could provide a jolt to FX trends in USD and GBP, which could produce some change in both USD/JPY and GBP/JPY.
EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY: What 40+ Years of Fed Rate Cuts Tell Us About Trading Forex
Perhaps contrary to popular opinion, the start of a new Fed rate cut cycle has NOT been a consistent bearish catalyst for the US dollar. Read on to for more!
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Range highs for US yields brings reversal risk for Gold, USD/JPY
A blowout payrolls report, another pushback from Jerome Powell against excessive rate cut bets and a surprise reacceleration in US service sector activity has seen the short end of the US Treasury curve come roaring back to life with yields surging higher.
US dollar forecast: Seeking breakouts on USD/JPY, USD/CAD
Without top-tier economic data scheduled, I suspect market conditions likely favour technical analysis over the foreseeable future whilst a pullback on USD plays out.
USD/JPY, gold, crude oil forecast: COT report – Feb 5, 2024
Bears continued to initiate fresh short bets against the Japanese yen, which points to further potential strength ahead of USD/JPY. Gold bulls trimmed longs for gold futures, and shorts continued to fall for crude oil.
USD/JPY bulls eye 152, AUD/USD bears eye 64c: Asian Open
A surprisingly strong NFP report on Friday saw the US dollar rally against all FX major, which brings 152 in focus for USD/JPY bulls and 64c for AUD/USD bears.
USD/JPY, Oil Forecast: Two trades to watch
USD/JPY looks to US non-farm payrolls. Oil falls across the week on Israel-Hamas ceasefire hopes.
USD/JPY and Nikkei 225 vulnerable should yield differentials continue to compress
Bond yields, especially in the United States given the US dollar’s role as the global reserve currency, are perhaps more important to Japan than many other parts of the world.