Bitcoin Analysis: Is indecision returning to BTC?

Over the past two trading sessions, Bitcoin price action has shown only a modest change of around 1.00%, a relatively low figure compared to last week, when moves of up to 4.00% in a single session were observed. This suggests that a new neutral bias is beginning to take hold in BTC’s short-term movements.

For now, the lack of interest in risk assets such as Bitcoin is becoming increasingly evident, as market preferences shift toward other asset classes in the short term. In addition, confidence in BTC remains unstable, limiting the conditions needed for sustained demand. If this dynamic persists, a prolonged phase of uncertainty could continue to shape BTC price action in the coming sessions.

Is appetite for BTC fading?

Following last week’s global central bank decisions, a more consistent indecision bias has emerged in Bitcoin demand. This is mainly because expectations of stable interest rates have begun to favor the bond market, a key substitute for BTC due to its lower risk perception and greater stability.

Since these announcements, the bond market has shown a steady increase in yields. In the United States, 10-year Treasuries remain above 4.00%; in Europe, 10-year yields exceed 3.4%; and in the UK, they stand above 4.5%. This reflects a strengthening in fixed income markets, which has started to attract more demand in the short term.

Source: Tradingeconomics

This dynamic has reduced the appeal of risk assets. As the bond market gains traction, investor preference shifts toward more stable assets, which also impacts Bitcoin. This is reflected in on-chain indicators such as active addresses, which have shown a notable decline since mid-March, dropping to around 595k addresses, compared to levels above 675k seen in previous weeks.

This points to reduced network activity and suggests that demand has not been able to stabilize, reinforcing the indecision bias and limiting the potential for a short-term price recovery.

Source: Cryptoquant

A similar pattern is observed in the number of confirmed transactions, which has declined to around 400k, well below the more than 500k transactions recorded in February. This drop in network activity further reflects weak demand dynamics and reinforces the current indecision in BTC price action.

Source: Blockchain

Taking all of this into account, it appears that the market is currently favoring assets such as bonds, reducing Bitcoin’s relevance in the short term. If this trend continues and activity indicators remain weak, BTC may stay in an indecision phase in the coming sessions.

 

Confidence remains under pressure

Although the Fear and Greed Index has shown a modest recovery, rising to 35 points and moving out of the “extreme fear” zone into “fear,” the improvement is not yet strong enough to confirm a stable recovery in market confidence.

Source: Coinmarketcap

If this indicator fails to consolidate a stronger recovery, current buying pressure in BTC may lack sufficient support. Should fear persist, further episodes of weakness similar to those seen in recent weeks could re-emerge, as confidence has not yet recovered enough to sustain consistent demand for Bitcoin.

 

Bitcoin Technical Outlook

Source: StoneX, Tradingview

• The broader trendline remains key: Despite recent attempts at recovery, Bitcoin’s price strength remains insufficient to break the long-term downward trendline, which continues to act as the dominant technical structure. At the same time, a neutral bias has begun to take shape in the short term. If this low-volatility environment persists, it could lead to a more defined sideways range in the coming sessions.
   

• RSI: The RSI remains close to the 50 level, indicating a balance between buying and selling pressure over the past 14 sessions. This suggests the absence of a dominant trend and supports the case for continued indecision.
   
• MACD: The MACD shows a histogram near the zero line, indicating a balance in short-term moving average momentum and reinforcing the current neutral bias in the market.
   

Key levels:

• 78,900 – Key resistance: Area aligned with the downtrend line. A break above this level could trigger a renewed bullish bias and challenge the current bearish structure.
   
• 70,000 – Near-term barrier: A key psychological level aligned with the 50-period moving average. Price action around this level could reinforce a sideways scenario.
   
• 63,900 – Key support: Zone of recent lows and the main downside barrier. A sustained break below could bring back a more dominant bearish trend.
   

Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst

Follow him on: @julianpineda25