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The historically-reliable 4-year halving cycle suggests that Bitcoin’s current bear market may stretch through Q3 before forming a durable bottom. What about valuation, central banks, money supply, sentiment, and institutional ownership?
We update our quarterly outlook for Bitcoin and highlight relevant fundamental and technical trends that will drive Bitcoin as it muddles through a weak point in the 4-year cycle.
As the Iran war pushes energy prices higher, the divergence between the US and Japan is becoming more pronounced, leaving the yen exposed and USD/JPY biased towards testing multi-decade highs.
As 2026 continues to unfold, currencies across North America are beginning to show notable shifts compared to the price action seen earlier in the year. Heading into Q2 2026, both USD/CAD and USD/MXN face a landscape shaped by changes in monetary policy, uncertainty around economic growth, and rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Gold is heading into the second quarter of 2026 after a large drop in March that had threatened to wipe out the entire Q1 gains. At the time of writing on 27th March, gold was around 15% down on the month but still some 4% higher on the first quarter.
EUR/USD slides toward a make-or-break level as Fed bets shift. Can support hold or is a larger breakdown underway?
Crude Oil Weekly Outlook: Oil closed Friday near the 2023 highs at $91 per barrel, as US–Middle East escalations extend into day 9. As disruptions intensify, clouding Tehran’s skies with thick black smoke, key levels stand to define the next move.
Crude Oil Weekly Outlook: Market risk sentiment continues to swing between geopolitical tensions, supply disruption risks, and oversupply concerns. However, key levels continue to define the main trends despite the volatility.
USD/CAD shows growing indecision after losing its long-term uptrend, with technical indicators maintaining a bearish bias and key levels pointing to a potential sideways range in early 2026. USD/MXN maintains a strong bearish trend, with the peso firmly in control, though early signs of upward corrections are beginning to emerge.
As 2026 begins, the currencies of the United States, Mexico, and Canada continue to be essential pillars of financial stability and sustained trade flows within the North American economic bloc. Heading into the first quarter of 2026, the USD/CAD and USD/MXN pairs face a landscape shaped by changes in interest rates, potential adjustments in trade relations, and ongoing uncertainty surrounding economic growth.
With Bitcoin's technicals, fundamentals, and sentiment painting a mixed picture, readers should defer to the key technical levels for near-term setups, rather than rigidly maintaining a strong directional bias throughout the year.
Crude oil has extended its bearish consolidation for four months since June 2025, trading within a larger down-trending channel that has persisted since 2022. This structure keeps the outlook tilted toward bearish dominance, with limited upside potential unless a decisive breakout beyond the $70 resistance and three-year channel emerges.
Domestic challenges for the UK are rising, and the outlook is deteriorating, which will likely weigh on the pound in the final quarter, despite uncertainty surrounding the USD.
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