Crude Oil Weekly Outlook: WTI Near $92 as Middle East Supply Shocks Intensify

Key Events

• Oil and desalination facilities across the Middle East face attacks and disruptions, deepening the impact of the war as it enters its ninth day
• GCC nations, including the UAE and Saudi Arabia, reduce oil output in response to Hormuz closure risks and facility attacks
• Crude oil momentum has surged to overbought levels last seen in 2022 during the Russia–Ukraine invasion, raising the risk of wide volatility swings as the conflict escalates

Middle East tensions began with US–Israel–Iran friction over a nuclear deal, then expanded into a broader regional conflict involving shipping and port disruptions, aviation interruptions, oil facility strikes, and partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting oil and gas flows both physically and through global pricing.

Below is a snapshot of key sites targeted since the beginning of the war, now entering its ninth day, including embassies, military bases, oil facilities, ports, and airports.

Source: Bloomberg

That was the situation prior to the weekend. Since then, desalination facilities have come under threat, raising freshwater supply concerns, alongside environmental risks from heavy bombardment of Tehran’s oil infrastructure, triggering large fires and pollution risks.

Risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz have pushed insurance premiums higher and reduced shipping volumes, lifting crude prices toward 2023 highs. WTI closed Friday near $91 per barrel, and Brent near $92. However, overbought momentum levels are now back to extremes last seen in 2022 during the Russia–Ukraine invasion.

Weekly RSI Indicators on WTI and Brent

Source: Trading view

Is this a sign that supply disruptions are already priced in, or are we setting the stage for a move toward $100-$130 per barrel?

WTI Crude Oil Outlook: Two Week Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Trading view

From a broader weekly perspective, crude has finally broken out of a 2.5-year downtrend in a single week, trading near the 2023 highs at $91 per barrel. Upside risks open toward the 2022 highs near $130 if prices close above 94, 97.60, 103, and 115 respectively.

On the downside, given the steep momentum, sharp volatility swings are likely. A pullback may find support at 84, 81, and 78. A close below 78 would shift bias lower toward 74 and 69.

Brent Outlook: Two Week Outlook – Log Scale

Source: Trading view

Brent mirrors WTI, also closing the week near 2023 highs around $92 per barrel, with momentum at overbought levels last seen in 2022 after a weekly surge of more than 26%.

A close above 94, 97, and 107 exposes the $120 threshold once again. A possible double-bottom formation from the April 2025 lows may also be developing.

On the downside, if risks are already priced in, key supports lie near 80 and 72, either holding for another bullish leg or confirming a broader corrective phase.

This sharp escalation in prices keeps rate-hold expectations dominant over cuts, strengthening the DXY against global markets. Key levels across DXY, crude, and gold are detailed in my latest article WTI Above $80, Dollar Strength and NFP Challenge Gold and Silver Gains

Written by Razan Hilal, CMT

Follow on X: @Rh_waves