Gold falls victim to strong US data

Gold has sold off thanks to a rebound in US dollar and bond yields. The fact that the yellow metal has turned lower from a key level makes today’s reversal eye-catching as the chart suggests that at least a temporary top may be in for now.

Gold fell along with the major currency pairs today as the dollar found support on the back of some stronger-than-expected US macro data.

Factory orders surged by more than expected, rising 1% month-on-month, while the closely-followed ISM services PMI came in at 56.5 compared to 53.3 expected and 54.4 last.

With US data continuing to remain largely positive, some investors are starting to re-question the market pricing of the terminal interest rates in the US, currently priced in at just below 5%. If incoming data continues to remain favourable, then inflation is likely to persist longer and that may encourage the Fed to be even more reluctant to pause its hiking early in the first half of 2023.

As the US dollar rose from oversold levels against major currencies, this spelt trouble for gold.

At the time of writing the chart of gold showed a potential reversal in the trend with the formation of a bearish engulfing candle on the daily time frame. The fact that this has been printed after gold earlier failed to hold above the key $1800 level makes it even more interesting. The $1800 level was a major support level in the past, which provided plenty of bounces for gold until it finally gave way back in July. It is also where the 200-day moving average comes into play.

Bulls’ failure to reclaim the 200 MA will excite the bears. But the bears still have some work to do as there are a few important supports that need to be broken if they are to regain full control of price action again. Among those, $1770 is the first hurdle, where we also have the bullish trend line converging. Next level down is around $1735, the most recent low.