S&P 500 Forecast: SPX flat after retail sales miss

US futures                                            

Dow futures 0.43%, S&P futures -0.03%  & Nasdaq futures -0.26%

In Europe                                                                           

FTSE -0.01 & DAX 0.07%

• Stocks mixed after yesterday’s gains
• Retail sales miss at 0% vs 0.4% expected
• US NFP & CPI this week
• Oil steadies after yesterday’s jump

Retail sales miss forecasts at 0% MoM

US stocks are pointing to a flat open on Tuesday, holding gains from the last two sessions, as markets continue to weigh AI capital-expenditure signals and weak retail sales data.

US retail sales unexpectedly stalled in December, suggesting that consumers were bringing less firepower to the economy in the final month of the year.

Retail sales rose 0% below forecasts of 0.4% and down from 0.6% in November, suggesting that the burst of activity at the start of the holiday shopping season was short-lived. The data comes as households remain frustrated by the high cost of living and concerns over the job market. The data also indicate that discretionary spending is less robust among lower-income Americans.

Delayed nonfarm payrolls and CPI data, due later this week, could provide fresh insights into both sides of the Fed's dual mandate.

Corporate news

Spotify's share price surged more than 14% in premarket trading after the streaming giant reported Q4 earnings that exceeded expectations, driven by robust user growth and improved profitability. The streaming platform posted EPS of €4.43, beating estimates of €2.85. Revenue was also ahead of forecasts at €4.53 billion, up 7% year on year. Monthly active users reached 751 million, beating forecasts of 745.24 million and marking 11% growth.

Coca Cola share price is falling 3% after mixed results. The firm offered a 2026 full-year sales outlook with the bottom end of the range below Wall Street estimates as the company works to expand its non-sugary drinks. The company sees organic sales growth of 4% to 5% whilst analysts expected over 5%.

S&P500 forecast – technical analysis.

The S&P 500 broke below the 50 SMA and the rising trendline on Thursday, reaching a low of 6730, before rebounding above the 50 SMA and the rising trendline resistance at 6950. Should buyers hold above this resistance, attention turns to 7000. A break below 6900 opens the door to 6800 and 6735. A break below here creates a lower low and exposes the 200 SMA at 6500.

FX markets – USD falls, USD/JPY falls

The USD is falling amid weaker-than-expected US retail sales data, raising concerns about consumer health as the US jobs market shows signs of slowing. Attention is also on tomorrow's nonfarm payrolls report and Friday's inflation data.

USD/JPY is falling further as the yen continues to strengthen in the wake of the weekend elections and Takaichi’s election victory. Her policies, which include tax cuts and more fiscal spending, are expected to boost the economy and lift the stock market, potentially prompting the Bank of Japan to take a more hawkish stance

GBP/USD is unchanged below 1.37 despite a weaker U.S. dollar. The pound is struggling to capitalise on the weaker USD amid expectations that the Bank of England could cut rates sooner and as the market continues to monitor political developments in Downing St following the resignation of several of PM Starmer’s close team. However, the Prime Minister has received full support from his cabinet, meaning he's likely to keep his job at least for now.

Oil steadies after yesterday’s jump

Oil prices are steadying below $65 with the focus on US-Iran developments. While oil prices rose over 1% in the previous session, oil prices are struggling to break above key resistance levels.

Yesterday, the US Department of Transportation warned American-flagged commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint for oil, to stay as far away as possible from Iranian waters. These warnings unnerved the market and lifted the risk premium.

However, with talks between the US and Iran set to continue, this does avoid the risk of immediate military action in the area.