What’s in store for EUR/USD into yearend?
EUR/USD posted a false breakdown at the bottom trendline of the channel in late November near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level
Share this:
End of year markets can be extremely difficult to trade. EUR/USD is no exception. On one hand they can be extremely quiet as many big money funds have wrapped up trading for the year. Why risk losing profits as we head into the last two trading weeks of the year? These funds may have even been out of the market before the central bank meetings last week due to the uncertainty! However, on the other hand, there can also bursts of volatility due to the illiquid markets. If someone, such as a trader for a pension fund, needs to get a position on in a product, he or she can move the markets, as there may not be many traders on the opposite side of the trade. Therefore, when trading at year end, it is best to take a longer-term view of the markets. If traders use smaller positions and wider stops, they are less likely to get taken out by any volatility.
EUR/USD has been moving in a downward sloping channel since reaching May 26th. However, the pair posted a false breakdown at the bottom trendline of the channel in late November near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the low of March 2020 to the high of January 2021, at 1.1292. However, since bouncing back into the channel, EUR/USD has been moving sideways between 1.1222 and 1.1383.
Source: Tradingview, Stone X
Trade EUR/USD now: Login or open a new account!
On a 240-minute timeframe, EUR/USD is consolidating in a symmetrical triangle. This makes sense given the quiet nature of trading at this time of year. However, if there is a burst of volatility higher or lower, below are some important levels to watch for price to pause or reverse:
Resistance
- 1.1383/1.1395: This level horizontal resistance from the top of the triangle and the 50% retracement from the highs of November 9th to the lows of November 24th.
- 1.1420: 50 Day Moving Average (see daily)
- 1.1446: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the recently mentioned timeframe
- *1.1490/1.1500:Strong long-term resistance and psychological round number resistance (See daily)
Support
- 1.1182: November 24th lows
- *1.1145: long-term horizontal support dating back to March 2020 (see daily)
- *1.1020: long-term horizontal support dating back to May 2020 (see daily)
Source: Tradingview, Stone X
When trading at the end of year, best risk management practices should be to trade smaller size and have wider stops than at other times of the year. Trading EUR/USD is no exception. Watch for quiet price action with possible busts of volatility which could move the pair quickly to resistance or support!
Learn more about forex trading opportunities.
End of year markets can be extremely difficult to trade. EUR/USD is no exception. On one hand they can be extremely quiet as many big money funds have wrapped up trading for the year. Why risk losing profits as we head into the last two trading weeks of the year? These funds may have even been out of the market before the central bank meetings last week due to the uncertainty! However, on the other hand, there can also bursts of volatility due to the illiquid markets. If someone, such as a trader for a pension fund, needs to get a position on in a product, he or she can move the markets, as there may not be many traders on the opposite side of the trade. Therefore, when trading at year end, it is best to take a longer-term view of the markets. If traders use smaller positions and wider stops, they are less likely to get taken out by any volatility.
EUR/USD has been moving in a downward sloping channel since reaching May 26th. However, the pair posted a false breakdown at the bottom trendline of the channel in late November near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the low of March 2020 to the high of January 2021, at 1.1292. However, since bouncing back into the channel, EUR/USD has been moving sideways between 1.1222 and 1.1383.
Source: Tradingview, Stone X
Trade EUR/USD now: Login or Open a new account!
• Open an account in the UK
• Open an account in Australia
• Open an account in Singapore
On a 240-minute timeframe, EUR/USD is consolidating in a symmetrical triangle. This makes sense given the quiet nature of trading at this time of year. However, if there is a burst of volatility higher or lower, below are some important levels to watch for price to pause or reverse:
Resistance
- 1.1383/1.1395: This level horizontal resistance from the top of the triangle and the 50% retracement from the highs of November 9th to the lows of November 24th.
- 1.1420: 50 Day Moving Average (see daily)
- 1.1446: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the recently mentioned timeframe
- *1.1490/1.1500:Strong long-term resistance and psychological round number resistance (See daily)
Support
- 1.1182: November 24th lows
- *1.1145: long-term horizontal support dating back to March 2020 (see daily)
- *1.1020: long-term horizontal support dating back to May 2020 (see daily)
Source: Tradingview, Stone X
When trading at the end of year, best risk management practices should be to trade smaller size and have wider stops than at other times of the year. Trading EUR/USD is no exception. Watch for quiet price action with possible busts of volatility which could move the pair quickly to resistance or support!
Learn more about forex trading opportunities.
Related tags:
The complete CFD trading experience
Award-winning platforms, competitive spreads, low commissions and dedicated support.
We live and breathe the markets and are dedicated to helping traders realise their ambitions as we continue to set the industry bar.
Economic calendar
Web Trader platform
Our sophisticated web-based platform is packed with features.
Related articles
Japanese Yen Forecast: USD/JPY 4% Rally Challenges Post-Intervention Downtrend 9 24 2026
USD/JPY momentum has shifted sharply higher, putting a major resistance confluence in focus as U.S. and Japanese event risk builds.
Oil Quietly Hands the Fed a Reason to Stay Hawkish
Oil prices and the U.S. dollar are both on the front foot as elevated energy costs feed Fed warnings that inflation may prove sticky.
S&P 500 forecast: Stocks extend drop as correction risks grow
US and global equity markets have extended Wednesday’s sell-off, with Wall Street opening lower after a weak handover from Asia and Europe. The deterioration in risk appetite has been spreading across global markets. The dollar was firmer, Treasury yields were holding onto yesterday’s gains, while gold, silver and bitcoin were all under pressure alongside equities and major currencies.
StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation.
StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.