ASX 200 Outlook: SPI Futures Rebound, But Resistance Looms Into Expiry

A sharp rebound in SPI 200 futures overnight points to a stronger open for the ASX 200 following Monday’s broad-based selloff. However, with open interest continuing to rise alongside nearby gamma resistance levels around 8600–8700, traders may need to brace for another session of choppy two-way trade as expiry approaches.

View related analysis:

ASX 200 Set for Higher Open Despite Bearish Pressure

ASX 200 Market Snapshot

A risk-off start to the week weighed on sentiment amid renewed concerns over global inflation and tighter Fed policy expectations. Higher crude oil prices and a late-Friday selloff on Wall Street saw the ASX 200 playing catch-up on Monday.

Monday marked the most bearish and volatile session in six trading days, with 10 sectors declining and just one advancing
Industrials (XNJ) led the decline with a -4% fall, weighed down by Brambles (BXB), which plunged -20.2% and suffered its largest daily gap lower on record
Materials (XMJ) fell -2.8% and suffered its worst 2-day run in two months, with Rio Tinto, Fortescue and BHP down between -5% and -7% from last week’s highs
SPI 200 futures rose 1% overnight, which could see ASX bulls attempt to reclaim 8600 today — although nearby resistance levels suggest another session of choppy two-way trade may be likely

Source: ASX, LSEG

ASX 200 Technical Analysis

ASX 200 Cash Market Shows Bears Retain Control

Monday’s selloff showed bears remained firmly in control of the ASX 200 cash market, with the index closing near its lows after slicing beneath the 50-day EMA and 8600 resistance zone. Consecutive bearish candles and expanding downside momentum suggest traders remain cautious, particularly with open interest continuing to rise — often a sign fresh shorts are entering the market rather than longs capitulating.

SPI 200 Futures Signal Potential Relief Bounce

However, SPI 200 futures rebounded strongly overnight and point to a higher cash open, which raises the risk of short covering and a relief bounce toward the 8600–8700 resistance band. The key question for traders today is whether bulls can achieve acceptance back above 8600. Failure to hold above that level could see the market rotate back toward the 8500 gamma magnet, while a stronger reclaim may allow volatility to expand higher into expiry.

8500 magnet: Near current price with balanced positioning → promotes choppy, mean-reverting trade into expiry.
8600 resistance: Rising call exposure and broken support near the 50-day EMA → first key upside friction zone.
8700 major ceiling: Largest nearby call concentration → key upside cap unless bulls achieve acceptance above.
8400 floor: Heavy put positioning beneath spot → likely first area where downside momentum slows.

Source: ASX, ASX24, TradingView

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-- Written by Matt Simpson

Follow Matt on Twitter @cLeverEdge

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