Crude Oil, Nasdaq, NVDA Outlook: Will Rising Oil Prices Cap the AI Rally?

Will rising oil prices cap the AI rally as bullish NVDA earnings expectations climb in a rising bond yield environment? Price action remains critical for confirming the next directional breakout across crude oil, Nasdaq, and Nvidia.

• NVDA earnings are expected to surpass $78 billion
• Concerns over priced-in AI optimism are rising as signs of market slowdown emerge on the charts
• Nasdaq pulled back over 3% from the 29,700 resistance/high while NVDA retreated over 7% from the 237 resistance/high
• Crude oil prices continue to hold near the $100 mark, adding pressure to inflation and bond yield expectations amid the upcoming FOMC minutes

Crude Oil Price Outlook: Weekly Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Trading view

Crude oil price action continues to hold near the $100 mark, challenging the resistance trendline connecting the lower highs since March 2026. This keeps bullish breakout risks in focus should a sustained hold above the 108 level re-emerge, potentially weighing further on bond markets and limiting gains across markets, including the Nasdaq and Nvidia.

The inflationary environment is not driven solely by crude oil prices. Fertilizers, shipping costs, and broader supply chain pressures are also contributing. However, crude oil price action continues to reflect the direction of the Middle East conflict, keeping key intermarket scenarios in focus that could inversely impact the Nasdaq and NVDA.

Bullish Scenario for Crude Oil

A sustained breakout above 108 and 115 could expose another leg higher this year toward 126, 135, and 157. These levels align with the Fibonacci extension ratios of 0.618, 0.786, and 100% of the 2020–2022–2026 cycle.

This scenario would likely add further pressure to recent drawdowns across risk assets and the broader technology rally.

Bearish Scenario for Crude Oil

A sustained hold below the 2023 highs near the 88–91 barrier would reinforce the de-escalation narrative, exposing prices back toward 86, 82, and 79 before potentially retesting the previous Middle East conflict high near 76 for either another rebound or an extended bearish continuation.

This scenario would likely ease inflationary pressures across markets, allowing risk asset trends to resume should central bank policy shift toward a less hawkish stance

Nasdaq Price Outlook: Weekly Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Trading view

Nasdaq remains below the 78.6% Fibonacci extension of the April 2021 2025 – October 2025 – March 2026 cycle.

Bullish Scenario for Nasdaq

A sustained hold back above 29,700 would expose gains toward the 30,100 psychological mark, followed by 30,500 and 30,900 as short-term resistance levels. The 31,500 level, aligning with the 100% Fibonacci extension, remains a higher probability setup for the next major resistance zone.

Bearish Scenario for Nasdaq

A sustained hold below 28,600 exposes downside risks toward 28,000, 27,800, and 27,000, aligning with Fibonacci retracement ratios of the impulse move between this year’s lows and highs, March-May 2026.

The more extreme bearish scenario would target the 50% retracement near the highs of the 2025–2026 consolidation around 26,200, which remains a higher probability zone for a bullish rebound setup / dip buying opportunity.

Related video: Nasdaq Rally Faces Inflation Risks as Bond Yields Threaten AI Momentum 

NVDIA Price Outlook: Daily Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Trading view

NVDA continues to trade in a similar structure to the Nasdaq, remaining below the 237 resistance level, which aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci extension of the wave between April 2021, October 2025, and March 2026.

Bullish Scenario for NVDA

A sustained hold above the 237 mark exposes upside potential toward the 78.6% and 100% Fibonacci extension ratios near 256 and 287.

Bearish Scenario for NVDA

In line with the bearish divergence and overbought RSI conditions on the daily time frame, a sustained hold below the 217 support level — a previously respected resistance and the 0.272 Fibonacci retracement ratio of this year’s uptrend — exposes downside risks toward 209, 200.60, and 192.

The 192 zone remains a higher probability rebound setup, aligning with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement ratio.

Price action and intermarket confirmation will remain critical in navigating the noise between AI demand, the implications of the Middle East conflict, and the shifting sentiment surrounding US-Iran tensions.

Written by Razan Hilal, CMT

Follow on X: @Rh_waves