Nvidia Earnings Preview: NVDA and NDX Bull Trends on the Precipice

Nvidia Key Points

• Nvidia is expected to report $1.25 in EPS on $55B in revenue after the bell on Wednesday.
• Key themes for this quarter include Blackwell adoption, customer mix, and physical constraints on AI datacenters.
• Both NVDA and the Nasdaq 100 are testing key bullish trend support, making this week’s announcement a key catalyst for the broader uptrend in risk assets.

When are Nvidia’s Earnings?

Nvidia reports earnings on Wednesday, November 19 after the market close.

What are Nvidia’s Earnings Expectations

Analysts expect Nvidia to report $1.25 in EPS on $55B in revenue.

Nvidia Earnings Preview

Buckle up: The nearly $5T market cap engine powering the “AI infrastructure buildout” theme that has been driving broad stock markets, the global economy, and risk appetite generally faces its quarterly test again this week. Even with the release of delayed NFP data and the minutes from the last month’s divisive FOMC meeting on the calendar, Nvidia’s earnings are likely to be the most important event risk to watch this week.

At the heart of Nvidia’s story is its datacenter segment, which again is expected to carry the bulk of revenues. Analysts estimate Nvidia captures about half of all AI infrastructure spending, underscoring its dominance … and the risk of being tied to a relatively concentrated set of hyperscaler customers. Accordingly, investors are eager to see whether AI capital spending remains broad across cloud and enterprise clients or increasingly concentrated among a few major customers. A cautious tone could reignite talk of “AI capex fatigue,” while a confident guide may reinforce the notion that demand is still expanding.

For this quarter, the spotlight will fall squarely on the company’s top-of-the-line Blackwell GPU chips. Analysts expect Blackwell-based products to contribute meaningfully for the first time, offering an early read on how quickly customers are adopting the next generation of Nvidia’s AI hardware. Investors will pay close attention to the mix of revenue tied to these systems and the associated networking and infrastructure rates, which could further boost margins if strong.

Earnings are inevitably backward-looking (especially for Nvidia, which reports relatively late in the traditional “earnings season”), so forward guidance will be the market’s key focus. Nvidia’s commentary on fiscal Q4 and early 2026 will likely dictate how long the current growth wave can last. Of particular interest will be any comments about physical constraints after recent concerns about mounting power and supply limitations facing large-scale data centers. Any signal that these issues are capping near-term output could weigh on sentiment, even if headline numbers impress.

Nvidia Technical Analysis: NVDA Daily Chart

Source: StoneX, TradingView

Turning our attention to the chart, NVDA remains in an uptrend near its rising 50-day EMA.

While the stock has clearly seen some of the bloom come off its bullish rose in recent weeks, we have yet to see any significant technical damage, keeping hopes of fresh record highs this year intact. With options markets pricing in a +/- 6.5% move on the earnings release, there is the potential for substantial volatility, albeit less than we saw a year or so ago.

A stronger-than-expected report could quickly expose the record highs near $210 given the bullish momentum and positive tailwinds, whereas a surprise miss or weak guidance would open the door for the stock’s first substantial pullback since Q1, with little in the way of strong support until the previous all-time highs and 200-day MA near $153.

Nasdaq 100 Technical Analysis: NDX Daily Chart

Source: StoneX, TradingView

Taking a broader perspective, the Nasdaq 100 (in which NVDA has a ~10% weighting) is similarly perched precariously at bull market support. As the chart above shows, the NDX is holding its rising trend line and 50-day EMA after a brief foray below that support zone on Friday. To the extent that Nvidia is a bellwether for the broader AI infrastructure buildout theme that has powered the uptrend in technology stocks more broadly, this week’s earnings will be a key catalyst for the index.

In my view, the path of least resistance remains to the topside (“the trend is your friend” after all!), with the 26,000 resistance area as a logical target on any decent earnings figures, whereas a miss could call the recent rally into question, setting the stage for a deeper pullback into the end of the year.

-- Written by Matt Weller, Global Head of Research

Check out Matt’s Daily Market Update videos on YouTube and be sure to follow Matt on Twitter: @MWellerFX