Oil Price Forecast: WTI Spills Towards Yearly Open Support
Oil prices plunged more than 10% off the monthly high with WTI now testing critical support at the 2025 yearly open. A multi-timeframe view of the oil technical charts.
Share this:
Crude Oil Technical Forecast: WTI Weekly, Daily & Intraday Trade Levels
- Oil erase January breakout- prices plunge nearly 10.4% off monthly high
- WTI now testing confluent support- risk for price inflection into close of the month
- Resistance 74.55/75, 75.57, 77.15/55 (key)- Support 71.89-72.45, 71.33 (key), 69.05
Crude oil prices are up just 2.9% despite a monthly range of more than 12.5% as the WTI bears attempt to ease the January breakout. A reversal off technical resistance now shifts the focus to a critical support pivot near the 2025 yearly open- risk for possible exhaustion / price inflection ahead. Battle lines drawn on the weekly, daily, and 240min WTI technical charts.
Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this crude oil setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.
Oil Price Chart – WTI Weekly
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; WTI on TradingView
Technical Outlook: In my last Oil Price Forecast, we noted that WTI was, “threatening a breakout of a six-month downtrend and keeps the focus higher while within this multi-week pitchfork. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 71.33 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 73.91 needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance.” Oil prices ripped higher the following week with a four-week rally extending more than 17.7% off the late-December lows.
The advance reversed sharply off Fibonacci resistance mid-month at 78.6% retracement of the July decline at 80.39 with WTI plunging nearly 10.4% off the highs. The decline is now approaching key support at the origin of the January breakout around the 2024 & 2025 yearly opens- looking for possible price infection into this zone in the days ahead.
Oil Price Chart – WTI Daily
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; WTI on TradingView
A look at the oil daily chart shows the magnitude of this recent decline with the December trendline further highlighting near-term support here at 71.89-72.45- a region defined by the objective 2025 yearly open, the August low-day close (LDC), the 61.8% retracement of the November rally, and the June swing low.
Ultimately, a break / close below the 2024 yearly open at 71.33 would be needed to invalidate the December uptrend / suggest a more significant high is in place. Losses below this threshold would threaten another bout of accelerated declines towards the November LDC at 69.05 and critical support at the 2020 high / 2023 close low / 2024 LDC at 65.62-66.29- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.
Oil Price Chart – WTI 240min
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; WTI on TradingView
A closer look at oil price action shows WTI trading within the confines of a descending pitchfork extending off monthly highs with the lower parallel further highlighting near-term support here. Initial resistance is eyed with the objective weekly open / 200-day moving average at 74.55/75 with near-term bearish invalidation now set to the 38.2% retracement at 75.58. Ultimately a breach / close above the 61.8% retracement at 77.55 would be needed to threaten uptrend resumption.
Bottom line: Oil has plunged into confluent support at the objective yearly open- looking for a reaction here with the bears vulnerable while above the December trendline. From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to 75.58 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 71.33 needed to fuel the next leg of the decline. Watch the weekly close for guidance here.
Active Weekly Technical Charts
- Euro (EUR/USD)
- Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD)
- Japanese Yen (USD/JPY)
- British Pound (GBP/USD)
- Gold (XAU/USD)
- US Dollar Index (DXY)
- Australian Dollar (AUD/USD)
- Swiss Franc (USD/CHF)
--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com
Follow Michael on X @MBForex
Latest market news
Open an account in minutes
Experience award-winning platforms with fast and secure execution.
Economic calendar
Web Trader platform
Our sophisticated web-based platform is packed with features.
Related articles
Nvidia Earnings Preview: NVDA’s First Test of the Post Jenson Huang Era
Nvidia is expected to report $2.47 in EPS on $108.8B in revenue this quarter, but investors will be more interested in the company's guidance after the unexpected departure of founder and CEO Jenson Huang.
US dollar forecast: USD/JPY and USD/CHF in focus | Forex Friday
Sticky US inflation and a hawkish Fed have kept the dollar firm across the majors, with USD/JPY pressing on the 160 handle. Here are the levels that matter on USD/JPY and USD/CHF as next week's retail sales, Nvidia results and FOMC minutes approach.
Swiss Franc Forecast: USD/CHF 3% Rally Threatens Multi-Year Downtrend 11 13 2026
USD/CHF has erased its October losses, but bulls still need a decisive weekly close above key resistance to confirm a larger bullish reversal.
The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.