US futures
Dow futures -0.11%, S&P futures 0.30% & Nasdaq futures 0.7%
In Europe
FTSE 0.36% & DAX 0.17%
- US stocks are mixed, with tech leading gains
- NFP and looming US government shutdown in focus
- Gold hits another record high
- Oil drops 2% after gains last week
Stocks are mixed ahead of a busy week.
US stocks started Monday in a mixed fashion, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rising at the start of a potentially volatile week. US data will be in focus, including ISM manufacturing and services PMI, ADP payrolls, and culminating with non-farm payrolls on Friday.
The data comes as the market looks past less dovish commentary from Federal Reserve Chair Powell last week and stronger-than-expected GDP figures, which raise questions about the Fed’s ability to cut rates aggressively.
Friday’s core PCE inflation gauge was in line with expectations at 2.9%, keeping hopes of rate cuts alive.
The economic calendar is quiet today, but all eyes will be on Friday’s data. If non-farm payrolls show resilience and surprise to the upside, they could spur the Fed to adopt a more cautious approach to rate cuts this year and potentially limit the number of rate reductions to one, rather than two, before the end of the year. This could send stocks lower.
Investors are also looking past the looming risk of the US government shutdown, which could delay the release of the jobs report. Congressional lawmakers face a deadline to pass a stopgap funding bill before the fiscal year ends on Tuesday. While Republicans control both Chambers of Congress, the votes of some Democrats would be needed to pass the legislation. If the shutdown did go ahead, it would be the 15th partial shutdown.
Concerns over the shutdown, combined with sticky inflation and the Fed's rate cuts, have helped Gold rise to record highs.
Corporate news
Gold mining stocks are in focus as gold hits fresh record highs. The precious metal trades above $3,800, helping gold miners such as Barrick Gold, Pan American, and Newmont rise.
Novo Nordisk is falling after the US-listed Danish pharma stock was downgraded to underweight by Morgan Stanley.
Oracle is gaining over 1% steadily after last week’s losses, when questions emerged around the AI trade that sent the stock tumbling. Oracle fell 8.2% last week, its most significant weekly decline since April 4th.
S&P 500 forecast – technical analysis
The S&P 500 trades in a multi-month rising channel just down from its record high of 6700. Buyers will look to rise above this level to extend gains towards 6750 and 6800. 6900 is the upper band of the channel. Support can be seen at 6580, the 20 SMA, and the lower band of the rising channel. A break below here brings 6450 into focus the 50 SMA. A break below 6350 could negate the near-term uptrend.
FX markets – USD rises, EUR/USD falls
The USD is falling, giving back some of last week's gains amid concerns over a government shutdown and market speculation surrounding new tariffs. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is expected to decrease interest rates at its October meeting.
EUR/USD is rising on the back of a weaker U.S. dollar and after eurozone consumer confidence data, which came in line with expectations. Attention will shift to eurozone inflation data, which is due later in the week and is expected to rise slightly to 2.3%. The data comes after ECB chief economist Philip Lane said that inflation expectations have reanchored at the 2% target level, supporting the view that the ECB is done with cutting rates.
The GBP/USD is rising amid a weaker USD and despite Chancellor Rachel Reeves hinting at further tax hikes in the November budget. At the Labour Party conference, the chancellor warned that tough choices would need to be made. However, she had said in an early interview that income tax and VAT would not be increased. In short, Reeves is still keeping the market guessing over her Budget.
Oil drops almost 2%
Oil prices are falling by almost 2% on Monday, giving back some of last week's 4.5% gains amid concerns over increased supply.
OPEC+ is now expected to agree to increase oil production further in November, lifting output by 137,000 barrels per day, as it continues to unwind its highly restrictive policies. However, it is worth noting that the oil cartel has been pumping around 500,000 barrels per day less than expected.
Meanwhile, oil production has begun to flow through a pipeline from Kurdistan for the first time in 2.5 years, following an agreement with the Iraqi government.
