Silver Analysis: XAG/USD Reaches $90 per Ounce for the First Time

As January progresses, one of the most surprising assets has been silver, which is currently posting a streak of four consecutive bullish sessions, registering gains of more than 18% in the short term and positioning itself as one of the most attractive assets in the market at this time. Buying pressure has remained firm, driven by an environment of market confidence indecision and by the declining appeal of the U.S. bond market, factors that have encouraged capital to shift back into metals. As long as these catalysts remain in place, buying pressure in silver is likely to stay relevant over the coming trading sessions.

Lack of confidence boosts demand

The start of 2026 has been marked by several significant geopolitical events. Following the escalation of political tensions in Latin America after the military intervention in Venezuela, additional sources of uncertainty have emerged, including rising tensions in the Middle East, with Iran facing widespread protests and increasing speculation about potential Western intervention. This has been compounded by growing discussion around a possible loss of independence at the Federal Reserve, following the recent criminal investigation involving its chair, Jerome Powell. Taken together, these developments have prevented markets from starting the year with a solid sense of confidence, increasing short-term risk aversion.

In this context, the Fear & Greed Index, despite attempting a recovery early in 2026, continues to hover around the 55-point level, within neutral territory. Moreover, the recent slope of the indicator has turned negative again, suggesting that the index is struggling to consolidate sustainably in the “greed” zone. This reinforces the idea that indecision remains a dominant factor in current market sentiment.

Source: CNN

Under these conditions, precious metals tend to consolidate their role as safe-haven assets during periods of uncertainty. Just as gold has attracted defensive flows, silver appears to be playing a similar role as a temporary refuge amid current political and economic developments. In fact, demand for silver ETFs has started to rise consistently. Through January 12, and during the two sessions prior, positive net inflows were recorded in the SLV ETF, highlighted by an inflow of nearly $100 million, restoring a degree of temporary confidence in institutional demand for silver.

Fuente: ETFDB

Against this backdrop, demand for silver has begun to stabilize consistently, supported by indecision in confidence indicators and the search for temporary safe-haven assets. As long as this environment persists, buying pressure in the metal is likely to remain relevant in the sessions ahead.

 

Bond yields lose ground

Another key factor has been the relationship between rising silver prices and the decline in U.S. 10-year Treasury yields. Looking at the past 50 weeks, a negative correlation coefficient of approximately -0.55 can be observed, reflecting an inverse relationship between the two assets. As Treasury yields have retreated again toward the 4.1% area, silver prices have advanced by a similar magnitude, marking new all-time highs over a multi-week horizon. Correlation coefficients may change over time.

Source: StoneX, TVC, TradingView

This loss of appeal in the bond market may be encouraging capital to rotate toward substitute assets, such as precious metals. Given that silver also serves as a temporary safe haven, declining yields—and therefore lower fixed income returns—could continue to support sustained demand for silver in the short term, keeping buying pressure elevated in XAG/USD price action.

 

Silver technical Outlook

Source: StoneX, Tradingview

• Dominant bullish trend: Since late November, silver has developed a more aggressive bullish trend compared to its prior long-term structure. This new trendline has remained dominant, allowing prices to continue printing new all-time highs. So far, no meaningful bearish corrections have emerged to threaten this structure, leaving it as the most relevant technical reference for the sessions ahead. That said, as prices continue to extend to new highs, the possibility of momentum exhaustion cannot be ruled out, potentially opening the door to short-term pullbacks.
   

• RSI: The RSI has moved above the 70 level, signaling an overbought condition. In addition, while silver prices continue to post higher highs, the RSI has begun to form lower highs, resulting in a bearish divergence. Both signals may be warning of an excess in buying momentum, increasing the likelihood of short-term bearish corrections.
   

• MACD: The MACD continues to display a histogram above the neutral zero line, indicating that short-term moving average momentum remains in positive territory. This suggests that, despite potential corrections, buying pressure continues to dominate the current price structure.
   

Key levels to watch:

• $91.11 – Crucial resistance: This level corresponds to the latest all-time highs. Sustained buying above this zone could extend the aggressive bullish trend in the short term.
   
• $79.38 – Nearby barrier: A level associated with previous highs on the chart, which could act as a key support area in the event of short-term pullbacks.
   
• $70.33 – Critical support: A level aligned with the most relevant lows of recent weeks and the bullish trendline. A sustained move toward this area could put the current bullish structure at risk and open the door to a more pronounced bearish bias.
   

Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst

Follow him on: @julianpineda25