Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook: USD/CHF Rally Vulnerable into Fed
USD/CHF rallied more than 4% off the yearly low with the bulls relenting into trend resistance ahead of the Fed. Battle lines drawn on the short-term technical charts.
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Swiss Franc Technical Forecast: USD/CHF Short-term Trade Levels
- USD/CHF rally halted at resistance- Monthly opening-range taking shape below
- Weekly range set above uptrend support- US Presidential Election / Fed Rate Decision on tap
- Resistance 8668, 8698-8725 (key), 8800/26- Support ~8615, 8581, 8550 (key)
The US Dollar surged more than 4% against the Swiss Franc with USD/CHF testing major resistance into the monthly open. The focus is on possible inflection off this zone with the pullback already probing initial support – battle lines drawn on the USD/CHF short-term technical charts into US elections and the Fed interest rate decision.
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Swiss Franc Price Chart – USD/CHF Daily
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CHF on TradingView
Technical Outlook: USD/CHF responded to key resistance into the November open at 8698-8725- a region defined by the 38.2% retracement of the yearly range and the 100% extension of the September range. Note that the upper parallel of the ascending pitchfork formation also converges on this threshold with the November opening-range taking shape just below- looking for possible inflection off this zone over the next few days.
Swiss Franc Price Chart – USD/CHF 240min
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CHF on TradingView
A closer look at Swissie price action shows USD/CHF testing support at the median-line today after gapping lower in the weekly open. A break / close below this slope would threaten a larger correction within the broader uptrend with support seen at the 38.2% retracement of the recent advance near 8581 and the September high at 8550. Ultimately, a break of the lower parallel would be needed to invalidate the late-September uptrend / suggest a more significant high was registered last week.
Weekly-open resistance is eyed at 8668 with a breach / close above 8725 needed to fuel the next leg of the advance / mark uptrend resumption. The next major resistance hurdle is eyed at 8800/26- a region defined by the 50% retracement, the 200-day moving average, the 2021 yearly open, and the June swing low. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached.
Bottom line: A pullback from uptrend resistance is now testing initial support with the monthly opening-range taking shape just below a key pivot zone. From a trading standpoint, look for a breakout of the weekly opening-range to offer guidance here with the September rally vulnerable while below this resistance pivot. Losses would need to be limited to the lower parallel IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 8725 needed to mark resumption. Keep in mind the US elections and the Fed interest rate decisions are on tap into the November opening-range. Stay nimble into the releases and watch the weekly closes here for guidance.
USD/CHF Key Economic Data Releases
Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.
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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist
Follow Michael on X @MBForex
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