EU Referendum

EUR/USD has been climbing from its post-Brexit lows for nearly the past month. Much of this rise has been attributed to weakness in the US dollar, as bets on a Fed rate hike this year have progressively diminished in recent weeks. Wednesday’s release of July’s FOMC minutes failed to help matters much for the US dollar, as the Fed was seen as sharply divided in opinion and unlikely as a whole to raise interest rates in the near future.

<p>Needless to say, markets in the past week have been rocked to and fro by the prior week’s Brexit decision. In the aftermath of Britain’s historic vote to leave the European Union and the resulting political turmoil, global financial markets have reacted in extreme and varied ways.</p>

<p>Bank of England (BoE) Governor Mark Carney made a speech on Thursday indicating that the central bank is likely to cut interest rates within the coming months in reaction to last week’s Brexit outcome that saw the UK vote to leave the European Union. Carney stressed that while the results of the referendum have been made clear, the full implications of a Brexit on the UK’s economy have not yet.</p>

<p>Wednesday was another “risk-on” day for the global financial markets, extending Tuesday’s bullish reversal as Brexit worries continued to abate. US and UK stocks surged sharply as crude oil spiked up on a much larger-than-expected draw in US crude oil inventories (-4.1-million-barrel draw vs. -2.3 million expected) as reported by the US Energy Information Administration. Meanwhile, sterling and euro extended their respective rebounds from Tuesday, only days after both currencies plummeted when Brexit voters emerged narrowly victorious from last week’s EU referendum.</p>

<p>Although the euro and pound both suffered massive hits as a result of last week’s Brexit decision, the euro has fared substantially better than sterling in the aftermath of Thursday’s EU referendum. While both currencies were expected to plunge on a Brexit outcome, it was also projected that the British pound would endure a significantly more severe blow. This was indeed to be the case, as the EUR/GBP chart displays an exceptionally sharp surge from the pre-Brexit 0.7600 low, representing a swift and sudden appreciation of the euro against the pound after the UK voted to leave the EU.</p>

<p>Both sterling and the euro found some relief on Tuesday with relatively modest bounces as profit-taking on short positions occurred after recent sharp declines, and the markets took a tentative breather from Brexit concerns. As may have been expected on such a breather, global stocks also generally bounced and safe haven gold fell from its recent long-term highs. Another major safe haven asset, the Japanese yen, which had been in exceptionally high demand after the historic outcome of last week’s British EU referendum, subsequently made a retreat on Tuesday.</p>

<p>EUR/USD made a key breakdown below major support on Friday after the outcome of the UK’s EU referendum was acknowledged. This breakdown occurred as both the pound and the euro were quickly sold-off on speculation of impending financial and economic turmoil in the UK and European Union as a likely result of the Brexit decision. At the same time, the US dollar was heavily-bought and boosted as a safer alternative to the embattled UK and euro zone currencies.</p>

<p>It is of little surprise that sterling has been the hardest hit of all currencies, and indeed of all major financial markets, as a result of last week’s surprise UK vote to leave the European Union. The Brexit outcome prompted an immediate chain reaction of severe volatility in markets across the globe, with the British pound absorbing the brunt of the damage, as previously projected. Also as expected, safe haven assets have been strongly boosted as a result of the Brexit-driven financial turmoil, with a particularly strong impact on the Japanese yen.</p>

<p>The outcome of Thursday’s historic EU referendum, in which nearly 52% of UK voters opted to leave the European Union, stunned markets globally in its immediate aftermath on Friday morning. The vote counting began with a surprisingly sizeable lead for Leave at over 60% of voters in Sunderland, and the pro-Brexit camp never looked back as it continued to maintain a modest advantage throughout the vote tally, even after the expectedly pro-Remain London votes came in.</p>

<p>As markets across the globe early on Referendum Thursday continued to reflect strong conviction that the majority of Britons would vote to remain in the European Union, USD/JPY tentatively surged above key resistance around the 105.50 level before paring some of its gains. This sharp rise was primarily due to substantial weakening of the yen, as bets that a Remain outcome would prevail prompted a considerable shift away from the safe haven Japanese currency. This shift occurred as the “risk-on” environment that began this week continued to prompt buying of riskier assets and a sell-off in assets that have traditionally been considered safe havens, like the yen and gold.</p>

<p>The price of gold less than a day ahead of Britain’s EU referendum hangs by a very thin thread. Since late last week, when market concerns over a potential Brexit began to wane, that thread has become even more tenuous. The precious metal has been falling for the past week from last week’s long-term high above $1300 resistance as the Remain campaign within the Brexit debate has regained some momentum in recent days. Still, despite volatility in recent polling, the overall picture continues to show an exceptionally tight race, with polls of polls showing the two sides essentially even.</p>

<p>In the immediate run-up to Thursday’s EU referendum in the UK, as market participants have increasingly come to doubt the probability of a pro-Brexit outcome, a general “risk-on” environment has enveloped global markets. With respect to currencies, the two that potentially stand to gain or lose the most from the outcome of the vote, the British pound and the Japanese yen, have reacted in somewhat predictable ways to this new market environment.</p>