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In complex adaptive systems like modern financial markets, a change the price of any one market has a spillover effect into other markets. One of the best understood and most straightforward of these intermarket relationships is the impact of the US dollar on US stocks. In short, a strong dollar tends to boost the performance of domestic stocks at t...

The US equity markets have started 2019 with a bang, but that good run of form could be about to end. Global stock indices were trading lower this morning, with US index futures also pointing to a lower open on Wall Street when trading gets under there later.

As expected, Theresa May survived the vote of no confidence brought against her by the opposition. The result was tight with just 19 votes in it. The pound spiked higher reflecting the short-term stability the result brings. Full attention will turn to Theresa May’s Plan B, expected 21st January.

The US government shutdown is dragging on into its 26th day with no end in sight, but the market impact has been limited so far. Indeed, the S&P 500 is has gained 8% so far, a return that is by far the strongest performance through a government shutdown to date. Meanwhile, the US dollar has ticked lower by about 1%, but few traders would argue that ...

As gold pauses for breath below the key $1300 handle and WTI crude oil trades around $52, we are wondering what 2019 will bring for these commodities.

If the government loses the no confidence vote then an early general election will be called. But rebel Tory MPs and the DUP are both expected to come back on side and back the government, meaning Theresa May is likely to survive.

Theresa May suffered a landslide Brexit defeat. Opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn tabled a vote of no confidence tomorrow. The pound rebounded from initial losses as traders are seeing the defeat as paving the way for an extension to Article 50 rather than the start of a no deal Brexit.

One of the first things that new traders to the FX markets learn is that many currencies are correlated with other markets. For instance, the close relationship between oil and the Canadian dollar or certain metals and the Australian dollar are intuitive given the importance of exporting those commodities for the Canadian and Australian economies.

There are two major currencies heavily underperforming the rest of G10 today. Any guesses, which two?

Traders’ risk appetites are actually holding up relatively well today, despite abysmal trade Chinese trade figures overnight (exports -4.4%, imports -7.6%), the likelihood of a failed vote on UK PM May’s Brexit deal tomorrow, an inauspicious start to Q4 earnings season, and the ongoing US government shutdown.

The much-anticipated delayed Commons vote is about 24 hours away now. Ahead of the vote, UK Prime Minister Theresa May has made a last-ditch attempt to persuade MPs to save her version of Brexit with a (dare I say, meaningless) speech in Stock-on-Trent earlier today

We’ve already written extensively about the high stakes for Tuesday’s vote on Theresa May’s Brexit bill (see here, here, and here for more), but with EUR/GBP clocking in as the weakest currency pair on the day, we also wanted to highlight key levels to watch on the second most-traded pound cross.