Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD
AUD/USD may further retrace the decline from the November high (0.6688) as it climbs to a fresh yearly high (0.6590), and data prints coming out of Australia may keep the exchange rate afloat as the Retail Sales report is anticipated to show a rebound in household spending.
Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Eyes November High
Keep in mind, AUD/USD bounced back ahead of the May low (0.6357) to defend the V-shape recovery from earlier this year, and the exchange rate may continue to appreciate as it appears to be defending the advance from the start of the week.
Australia Economic Calendar
At the same time, the update to Australia’s Retail Sales report may sway AUD/USD as household spending is expected to increase 0.4% in May after contracting 0.1% the month prior, and a positive development may push the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to the sidelines following the 25bp rate-cut in May.
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In turn, a recovery in private sector spending may generate a bullish reaction in the Australian Dollar as it encourages the RBA to retain the current policy at its next meeting on July 8, but a weaker-than-expected Retail Sales report by drag on AUD/USD as it puts pressure on Governor Michele Bullock and Co. to implement lower interest rates.
With that said, AUD/USD may consolidate over the remainder of the week if it snaps the bullish price series, but the exchange rate may continue to approach the November high (0.6688) as it appears to be defending the advance from the weekly low (0.6523).
AUD/USD Price Chart – Daily
Chart Prepared by David Song, Senior Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView
- AUD/USD trades to a fresh yearly high (0.6590) as it starts to carve a series of higher highs and lows, with a breach above the November high (0.6688) opening up 0.6720 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement).
- Next area of interest comes in around 0.6820 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement), but AUD/USD may consolidate over the coming days if it fails to retain the advance from the start of the week.
- Lack of momentum to hold/close above the 0.6510 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) to 0.6550 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) zone may push AUD/USD back toward 0.6430 (50% Fibonacci retracement, with the next area of interest coming in around the June low (0.6373).
Additional Market Outlooks
British Pound Forecast: GBP/USD Coils Ahead of July
Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Tumbles Toward June Low
USD/CHF Selloff Stalls to Keep RSI Out of Oversold Zone
US Dollar Forecast: USD/JPY Reverses Ahead of May High
--- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist
Follow on X at @DavidJSong
