Financial Market Alerts

Why the US dollar could benefit from fewer rate cuts than expected following a relatively quiet 2023...

Once again, the 1-day implied volatility levels for EUR/USD and USD/JPY have blown out ahead of a busy calendar. Central bank members from the Fed, ECB, BOE and SNB will hit the wires, European GDP is also on tap ahead of the key US inflation report.

With the decline in the inflation rate seemingly stalling, a higher-than-expected inflation reading is likely to be more impactful to markets.

Hawkish comments from Jerome Powell with the threat of further hikes snapped Wall Street’s 8-day wining streak, and hints at a swing high on the S&P 500 heading into the weekend. And that puts traders on high alert for next week’s inflation report, not to mention the threat of a government shutdown if the debt ceiling is not raised by Friday.

USD/JPY is showing signs of rolling over, but remains in a longer-term uptrend ahead of the BOJ and Fed

New Zealand inflationary pressures moderated-more-than expected in the September quarter, taking the wind out of the NZD/USD’s sails following the expected election victory from the National Party-led coalition over the weekend.

Bondcano, the phrase coined to described the sharp acceleration of bond yields to the detriment of equities, appears to be smouldering as yields have pulled back from their highs. It has certainly provided some relief for sentiment, given the well-based concerns that something was about to break in the financial system. But with the Fed members now striking a relatively dovish tone, it raises the question as to whether bond investors will now step back into the market to capitalise on attractive yields and take the sting out of bondcano’s tail.

It's the last trading week of August, and it's fair to say that market conditions were more volatile and eventful than this time of year tends to provide. At the time of writing, we're yet to hear what Fed Chair Jerome Powell has to say, but it could certainly set the tone for next week's trade. And there is no shortage of data to kick off September, including US PCE inflation, GDP, and the ISM manufacturing survey. Final PMIs are also published for the US, UK, Europe, Japan, and Australia. And incoming RBA Governor Bullock speaks, and a host of Australian data includes CPI, retail sales, home loans, and capex.

USD/JPY is holding steady near its highest levels of the year, with traders watching the well-defined short-term range from 145.00-146.60...

Gold is threatening to close lower for its 6th straight day, with potential to extend its drop toward $1865 before finding support...

GBP/USD is approaching near-term resistance around 1.2800 ahead of tomorrow’s retail sales report...

It may be the middle of the US summer, but economic data keeps coming thick and fast. A defiantly strong set of economic data from the UK piles the pressure on the Bank of England (BOE) to keep tightening, and makes next week's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report as relevant as ever.

Natural gas – a key inflationary input – is teasing markets with a bullish breakout on the eve of a key US inflation report in the US. A day after WTI hit a new YTD high.

USD/JPY edges lower after Fed Chair Powell emphasizes patience...

Whilst Aussie employment data raised expectations of another RBA hike, today’s soft CPI figures may get the RBA off the hook from those opposing higher rates. AUD/USD fell accordingly.

GBP/USD is trading at a two-week low under previous-resistance-turned-support at 1.2850, potentially opening the door for a deeper retracement if the Fed is hawkish